Simon Sim Advisory Research Pte Ltd

The Way ICnFeel The Market:

6 December 2008

9 August 2009
Wishing

Happy National Birthday to SSAR Students, Families, Friends and all Singaporeans on the 9th August 2009!

On our

44th Birthday since Independence in 1965! - Thanks to MM Lee Kuan Yew.

50th Birthday since Self-government in 1959! - Thanks to the British.

190th Birthday since Founding in 1819! Thanks to Sir Stamford Raffles. May you rest in forever peace.

Dear Students

This is the Pledge of Singapore we have been singing since Independence, 44 years ago. Have we fulfilled our Pledge?

We, the citizens of Singapore, pledge ourselves as one united people, regardless of race. language or religion, to build a democratic society based on justice and equality so as to achive happiness, prosperity and progress for our nation.

In terms of:
United People - yes
Democratic Society - yes
Justice - yes
Equality - yes
Happiness - yes
Prosperity - yes
Progress - certainly yes, in fact too much

So why are you complaining and thinking of migrating? Unless, your answers are no, no and no. That means you are blinded, bias, un-educated, un-objective, personal grudges, personality conflict with the leaders, envious of success, jealous, unable to discriminate between facts and fictions, allow small minuses to cloud big pluses, unable to offer minor sacrifices for the majority's benefit, inability to be part of a macro-team.

Why do some Singaporeans think so badly of Singapore even though we continue to win global recognitions and many firsts and few seconds? Some even think that Singapore 'bought' those World First titles.

Wake up, wake up, you mis-guided Singaporeans who prefer to migrate and be Second-class Citizens than be First-class, who had this misguided thought that a Second-class citizens in a foreign country is treated as well as a First-class. Only in Singapore is everybody equal as a citizen. In America, the Blacks is Third-class, not even Second. Saw how they treat the Harvard Professor. Hopefully, President Obama can turn the tide but it is going to take another 200 years to change the mindset of 150 million whites.

There must be a reason why you were born in Singapore, why not in Africa, Sri Lanka or Bangladesh or Phillipines, East Timor, N Korea, Eastern Europe, Iraq, Iran, Somalia or in rural India or China. When we compare ourselves to these countries, we can count ourselves VERY VERY lucky. Why?

God has place you here, you must be very blessed; He has chosen your place of Birth - Singapore, you have to make the best of it and make it even better for the other people He plans to place here in the future. If this is your divine mission, then you will always be happy, good time and bad times, up and down, and you will look forward everyday to be an instrument of the divine will. And when you awake in the morning, you praise God for another day of opportunity to be a part of the divine mystery.

Be happy, be a blue Singaporean. Our leaders are not perfect, only God is perfect.

Sharing my inner private thoughts with you on this happy occasion. God bless you, all and Singapore!

18th Jun 2009
Dividend of STI Index stocks

Good information to know - deposits earn only a quarter percent while the following stocks pay above 4% dividends:

1. SPH 8.7%
2. Starhub 8.4%
3. CapMall 8%
4. SIA 8%
5. SIA Eng 7.5%
6. S Tech 6.5%
7. SGX 5.6%
8. DBS 5.4%
9. KepCor 5.3
10. Cosc 5.2%
11. NOL 4.9%
12. SMRT 4.5%
13. UOB 4.2%
14. Sintel 4.2%
15. SembCor 4%

The average is 6%. Is not that a far better deal than buying Hi-5 notes or Lehman Notes? On top of that there could be capital gains.

It is a good idea to buy everyone ie treat it as a basket.

17th Jun 2009
China sets out new quarantine regulations for flue. A simple, desperate and effective solution

There are two things that can spook the market, and they are: Oil prices and Swine Flu. The world is facing the same old killer of 1918-1919 - H1N1 which killed 50-100million worldwide. Currently, nations are afraid to push the panic button for obvious reason - it may kill the 'green shoots'. Take a look at China's plan:

China sets out new quarantine regulations for flu Wed Jun 17, 2009 8:41am EDT

BEIJING, June 17 (Reuters) - China plans to restrict movement in residential areas and shut down entertainment centres to prevent the H1N1 flu strain from spreading, under worst case contingency plans released by the health ministry on Wednesday.

The ministry says stringent quarantine measures on incoming travellers have prevented the disease from spreading among the general population.

With 264 cases as of Wednesday, and new cases cropping up around China, the ministry's new plan seeks to address possible outbreaks in residential neighborhoods.

Schools could be closed and meetings or gatherings delayed or cancelled, the plan said.

China has been eager to show it can effectively control H1N1, after its cover-up of SARS contributed to the spread of that disease. Experts also fear the flu strain could turn more lethal if it spread widely in China, given the large population and uneven health services.

Many foreigners chafed at China's quarantine restrictions on travellers, which in some cases seemed illogical. The World Health Organization warned that China's current policy is too resource intensive to be sustainable should the disease become widespread.

Roughly one-quarter of the confirmed cases in China as of early June were United States citizens, the U.S. embassy in Beijing said earlier this month, suggesting that Chinese caution in quarantining hundreds of American travellers was justified.

The WHO declared H1N1 a pandemic last week following a spike in cases in Australia.

(Reporting by Lucy Hornby; Editing by Sanjeev Miglani)

Desperate times may require simple, desperate but effective solution: Do you still remember how to rinse your nose with saline water? Sterilise your nose with salt may be the last straw defence against H1N1 if situation turns gross. That means rinsing your nose every two or three hour interval. A higher dosage of salt may be necessary. In the worst case scenario, there may be no room in the hospitals, no ambulances to call, no transport to take, no medicine for the unimportant common man like you and me unless you are 'somebody important'. So, the only medicine for me and my family is: rinse your nose every 2-3 hours! I have been preaching this defensive method and now could be the opportunity and chance to test it. If you are versed in Pranayama, practising anulom-velom breathing method will strengthen your nasal canals and your bodily defence.

16th Jun 2009
Where is the STI now?

On March 9th 2009, the STI completed Wave A. Currently, it is unfolding Wave B.

We expect Wave B to subdivide into abc. As such, most probably, the STI has completed 'a' and will head down for 'b' which is expected to bottom within the range of 40-60% of wave 'a' advance (1455-2424).

The 60-50-40 % calculate at 1842, 1940 and 2036 respectively. Those who missed the Wave A bottom and those who had exited at the top of wave a of B, will look to enter or re-enter within the Fibonacci price ranges on condition that Oil prices stay below $75 and Swine Flu pandemic remains within expectation.

At present, the softer market tone can be attributed to rising Oil prices, Swine Flu fear, Korean Nukes, instability in Iran due to the Election protest, rising yields and rising unemployment in US which led to investors locking in handsome profit and Funds pulling out buy orders.

September is a do-or-die month as by then the Swine Flu is either a mute or a mutant. The earlier is good for investors but the later will be a disaster for the world.

I hope by now the students are well versed to understand my wave commentary. Let me know if you are still swimming below the waves (blur blur). I do not mind giving you extra lesson.

15th Jun 2009
If the Swine Flu mutates ....

In 1918 when the Flu started, the world was busy with World War I. The doctors know of the flu but everyone thought it was a common cold. At the end of 1918, the Influenza Pandemic killed estm 50-100 Million worldwide. Is this the hidden Pandemic waiting to occur? I am really afraid from now to September 2009. You may want to play it safe.

The first wave appeared in US on 4th March 1918 resembling a typical flu epidemics. The second wave appeared in August in France, the virus had mutated into a deadly form. The deadly infection peaked in mid October and suddenly disappeared in mid-November 1918.

Read more at source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu 1918 flu pandemic From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Two American Red Cross nurses demonstrate treatment practices during the influenza pandemicof 1918.The 1918 flu pandemic (commonly referred to as the Spanish flu) was an influenza pandemicthat spread to nearly every part of the world. It was caused by an unusually virulent and deadly Influenza A virus strain of subtype H1N1. Historical and epidemiological data are inadequate to identify the geographic origin of the virus.[1] Most of its victims were healthy young adults, in contrast to most influenza outbreaks which predominantly affect juvenile, elderly, or otherwise weakened patients. The flu pandemic has also been implicated in the sudden outbreak ofEncephalitis lethargica in the 1920s.[2] The pandemic lasted from March 1918 to June 1920,[3] spreading even to the Arctic and remote Pacific islands. It is estimated that anywhere from 50 to 100 million people were killed worldwide,[4][5] or the approximate equivalent of one third of the population of Europe.[6][7][8] An estimated 500 million people, one third of the world's population (approximately 1.6 billion at the time), became infected.[5] Scientists have used tissue samples from frozen victims to reproduce the virus for study. Given the strain's extreme virulence there has been controversy regarding the wisdom of such research. Among the conclusions of this research is that the virus kills via a cytokine storm (overreaction of the body's immune system) which explains its unusually severe nature and the concentrated age profile of its victims. The strong immune systems of young adults ravaged the body, whereas the weaker immune systems of children and middle-aged adults caused fewer deaths.

The Swine Flu appeared in April 2009. We are now in the first wave of this Swine Flu. Will there be a second wave? If there is a second wave, expect 'hell' in the months ahead until Jan 2010 - 9 long months!

What can we do? If wave 2 develops, quarantine your family at home but make sure there is enough food and masks to last 9 long months. What will happen to the stock market and economy? Both will suffer great losses. The market sell off today could be the frist "play safe" reaction. Up to last Friday, I was 55% lighter on my portfolio. I had no choice as I was an over-sized bull. So when the two factors of Oil prices and Swine Flu increase in tempo, I decided it was enough - the stake and risk were too high.

On 8th of June, I sent two emails with the header, "Time to evaluate the news and weigh the scenario before adjusting your long term portfolio" and another "Two factors that may spook our local market". On the 11th June, "What can spook the market? and on 12th Jun, "Flu Pandemic is beginning, so no panic and fear on day one but ...." and another "Meaning of Level 6". There were enough warnings. I hope you took some action.

Fear is a market killer. If investors and speculators are consumed by fear, prices will go into a down spiral. Fear can destroy anything. So we have to anticipate in advance whether there is justification for fear to break out. In a Bear Cycle, to fear is only logical. In a Bull Cycle, to greed is just as logical. Fear caused the DJIA to shed 20-25% in the first week of October 2008 and on Feb 9th-Mar 9th 2009.

We always hope for the best ie that there is no second wave ....... but is prepared for the worst case scenario.

12 June 2009
Meaning of Level 6

Yesterday, WHO declared the H1N1 virus has reached a pandemic level 6. WHO's greatest fear is the widespread H1N1 infection allows the virus to mutate into another deadly form, and without warning we have a Killer Pandemic equivalent to the 1918 Flu Pandemic. If the H1N1 Flu virus spreads too fast, nations may be forced to take drastic actions according to WHO standards. Are we sitting on a time bomb?

Government possible measures: Suspend all modes of travel. Suspend human gatherings - school, work, prayers, meetings, weddings, exchanges etc

Effect: Hospitals may be overcrowded and cannot coup, rejecting flu patients. Panic and desperation as there is no supply of vaccine. Prices of foodstuffs rise steeply because of hoarding. Businesses suffer economic losses like empty cinemas, shopping centres, tourism, air travel, etc.

Greatest Fear: H1N1 mutates and existing vaccines become ineffective, and the Flu becomes like the Flu in 1918 when it killed 40 million of the global population

Immediate Action: A healthy body is the best defence against flu - best medicine is Yoga and Pranayama!

Must do: Stock up breathing mast. Stock up some food. Lighten up your long term portfolio.

Ultimate Hope: Pray and communicate with God - ask for his protection and grace

The world's major problems can be summarised as:
1. Recession - V, VV or VVV
2. Oil
3. H1N1
4. Interest rates
5. US$ and
6. Nuclear

12 Jun 2009
Flu Pandemic is beginning, so no panic and fear on day one but ...

Flu Pandemic is beginning only but will turn severe after September which is supposed to be the economic bottom. How severe nobody will know. Just be prepared and plan for the worst case scenario. Quote: Expect the unexpected.

At present, it seems everyone has lowered their gut and the attitude is "Not serious. Not dangerous. Not a killer. Doctors have Tamiflu. It is a common flu." Investors will throw caution into the wind - they will be too busy chasing the current bull run.

Today, 11th June 2009, Thursday, is day one or the beginning of the pandemic - life goes on. It means no panic and fear in the beginning but smart money will be preparing to get out between now and September. So don’t do nothing - please do something. By 19th September ie 100th day, and before winter arrives, there is a chance for panic if the situation is severe and life threatening.

The severity of the H1N1 in September will derail the economic recovery and may create a food crisis which in turns causes inflation and therefore a rise in interest rates. In a crisis, normally the US$ will be the currency of refuge and should strengthen rather than weaken.

12 June 2009 Do I sleep a student ask

Timothy asked, “I often get your emails late at night sometimes 4-5 am. I know u even have yoga in the morning. How do you manage that? Watching the US market & SG in day time...Do you Sleep?”

Simon replied, “Hi Tim, Yoga and Pranayama give me lot of energy. You even sleep less as the sleep is very deep. Your body has a lot more O2. Your brain thinks better; I eat less, only two meals a day. I sleep 5 hours a day yet I am still fresh and full of energy and vitality.”

12 Jun 2009 What is our MM Lee doing in Malaysia?

On the 3rd of June, I recommended buying Public Bank and May Bank. Hope you do have as Public Bank last traded at RM8.95

What is our Chu'ke Liang doing in Malaysia this week, for seven long days? What is the implication and are there opportunities?

On the 24th of May, 2009, PM Najib of Malaysia was in Singapore. Both PMs talked about cooperation and friendship - words last heard more than ten years ago. In the past ten long years, the combative stances were: "I want to be better than you", "You depended on us for ....." and "I am mightier than you, I can strangle and choke you."

Though nation had taken a retreat from West Toxic Waste Avenue, a new road opens up north. In the past, we took the initiatives to push into China and India but kept a cold shoulder to the north. Today, the north is laying road into Singapore. Honestly, they need us more than we need them. Singapore played the poker game well even though we know that cooperation is the word that will do both economically good.

Let’s hope this time, our relationship can flourish and our neighbour knows how to be happy with their performance.

Where MM goes, success is in tow. The important question: What to stocks buy?

Let’s bless our relationship with our closest neighbour Malaysia. I am looking forward to cheaper holidays in Malaysia, cheaper seafood dining, and cheaper retirement in Malaysia...provided the security issue is tackled. Malaysia is a lovely country. We need them as a quick "getaway".

PS: Where Ah Ching touches, gold turns to dust!

11 June 2009 What can spook the market?

The bad news are: Oil prices are trading at $71.30 now; there is fear of hyper-inflation - yields are rising; interest rates dealers are pricing for higher rates; news analysts are discussing about hyper-inflation; the DJI is showing nervousness at one stage down -120 points, recovered to -60 pts and back down to -95 at 3.15am.

The good news are: US stocks are testing the 200ma and economists are calling for economic recovery on September.

Advise: If OIL PRICES rise above $75, the green shoots may turn black. I will lighten up my long term portfolio. I dont think the global economy can take another Oil squeeze.

In Singapore, my gut feel is the big boys may be pushing up to sell. OCBC appears tired - a potential triple thrust tops. On average, the stocks have gained 100% from the low of 9th March. This will attract profit taking.

Question: In the meltdown from Jan to March 9th, while everybody is selling stocks, who was buying? Would not he sell now at a 100% profit?

8 June 2009
Trading lesson before and after March 9th, 2009

If I may coin a quote for the period from Jan to March 2009, it will be this:

Quote:

When it is cheap, we think it can be cheaper; when it is cheaper, we think it is useless. Inversely, when the price is high, we think it can be higher; when it is higher, we think it is priceless.

The market makes a fool of us. In truth, it is our mind that is being manipulated by the butterfly prices.

What is the right thing to do?

Think and analyze what to do off market hours, then write down your plan of action, finally relay it to your clerk (broker) or else make sure you are disciplined enough to execute the plan. You know the market axiom: Plan your trade and trade your plan. The common mistake of traders is - they failed to follow the plan. It is a fundamental rule to follow the trend. Yet most traders failed to follow the trend. Do you know the difference between plan and trend?

Never think and plan during market hours. Before and after market hours, we think well and are crystal clear; during market hours we are petty, hazy, fussy and stubborn-to-the-bone.

At the end of March, it was technically and informatively clear that the trend was rising, but the bears were saying: No, it is bearish; no way, it is still bearish; impossible, it is still bearish but I will buy back if prices are lower. They finally end up buying at the top. I know of two short sellers, one of them lost a million dollar, the other two million dollars. Where did they go wrong? You should know the answer by now.

Quote:
When the heart is sold, the head is useless. When the head is sold, the heart is still useful.

In trading, use the head first, then the heart, finally the legs. Dont run when thinking, dont feel when running, and don’t think when feeling.

8 Jun 2009 Two factors that may spook our local market

Sunday Times' headline reads: Be prepared if H1N1 spreads here. Is the H1N1 under control or out of control? If it is the later, market may go into an overdue correction.

The second fact is: Oil prices are trading higher at US$70 per barrel. Last Friday, Goldman Sachs predicted Oil prices rising to US$85 per barrel. Is that all or will the Oil prices gun for US$100 and higher? Can the world take another Oil shock? In Oct 2007, Oil prices hit US$95 and the global stock market starts a meltdown even before the Oil prices hit a high of $147 in May 2008.

The good headline news on Saturday was: N-Day events to mark 50 years of self-rule. Technically, this is a piece of good news that would drive stock prices right up to National Day on the 9th of August. But if H1N1 is out of control and the Health Authority starts a clam down (for example stay at home rule), then the stock market may undergo a localized technical correction.

If you are feeling uncomfortable, maybe it is right to listen to your hunch. In view of the threatening scenario, it may be wiser to lighten up your long term portfolio. The cash you stock up will enable you to accumulate stocks should prices undergo a technical correction.

As the market climbed in March, traders were bearish and were caught shorting. Funds were caught by surprised. To date, you can declare with confidence that those die-hard bears were dead and buried for good; some may even have turned bulls. The smart money that accumulated in February and March, are waiting for the crowd to take the bait and the silly funds to jump in. The question is: have the crowd and the funds arrived and taken the bite?

Technically, the STI has recovered 40% of Wave A's decline. We are currently undergoing Wave B. Nobody knows how crazy Wave B can be - it can be 40%, 50%, 60% or 100% recovery. At the end of Wave A, investors found safety in cash. Wave B is a panic scenario when investors realize their mistake of sitting on cash.

The current Wave B is likely to be affected by H1N1 and Oil prices. Since Wave A subdivides into 12345, we expect Wave B to subdivide into abc. In that scenario, the current 40+% retracement can be labelled the 'a' of Wave B. How low will 'b' of Wave B be? That will depends on the severity of the potentially damaging H1N1 and how high Oil prices are being manipulated?

At the end, we must ask ourselves, "Do I feel comfortable or feeling uneasy?" I am uneasy with the rising number of H1N1 in Singapore. What if the Health Authority panic and introduce draconian measures? Meanwhile, I am watching Oil prices - if it breaches above US$75, I will press my emergency button.

We can monitor Oil prices dollar by dollar but we cannot know what Khaw Boon Wan, the Health Minister will do? His announcement may be too late for us to react. We can only anticipate and and make good guesses.

I am feeling uneasy about Oil prices - the Oil producers are into Act 2 Plan 1. Plan 1, Act 1 squeezed Oil prices to a high of $147 - the world surrendered. Plan 1 Act 2 - make the world bows down. Plan 1 Act 3 - world on fire! Hmmmm ... those oil conspirators are f#*&^%#$!!ole.

Goldman Raises end-2009 WTI Crude Oil Forecast to $85:
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude oil for the end of 2009 to $85 a barrel from $65 a barrel and predicted further gains next year as demand recovers.

“As the financial crisis eases, an energy shortage lies ahead,” Goldman analysts Jeffrey Currie in London and David Greely in New York wrote in a research report e-mailed today. The bank set a 12-month price target of $90 a barrel, up from $70, and introduced a forecast of $95 for the end of 2010.

Goldman had expected oil prices to dip during the middle of this year, then rally in later months. Crude oil for July delivery traded at $66.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 8 a.m. London time.

"With the risk of further pricing dislocations reduced, we are omitting the prior anticipated price pullback from our forecasts and have raised our 3-month ahead price target to $75 a barrel from $52 a barrel,” Goldman said in the report dated June 3.

By Stephen Voss June 4 (Bloomberg)

8 Jun 2009 Time to evaluate the news and weigh the scenario before adjusting your long term portfolio

Good news:
1. US economy steady n stable, and stocks are bullish on the 200MA, and heading higher
2. Govt planning 50th National Day big bash - so bullish stocks until one week before NDP 9th August.
3. Funds are still underinvested - how willing are they to jump in now?

Bad news:
1. H1N1 appears to be spreading among Singaporeans - how will Health Minister Khaw Boon Wan react?
2. Oil prices inch higher to $70 – Goldman Sachs forecasted $85 - will it derail the global economy again?

STI facts:
1. Completed Wave A on 9th March
2. Undergoing Wave B - retraced 40% of Wave A
3. Crowd gets excited
4. Volume high
5. Penny stocks are running wild
6. Market is over-bought

Old news:
1. Underinvested funds panic and drove stock prices higher
2. Shorts are all dead and buried; some may have already turned bull.

Do you feel comfortable with the bad news?

7 Jun 2009 A Financial Prayer

Prayers work and prayers are request. Prayers are messages of communication to your Creator God. Prayer is a way to tap or invoke the unknown powers in the Universe. If you find the below financial prayer useful, do keep it or else trash it away.

Dear God,
1. Relieve me and my family from the vicious cycle of poverty and mistakes. 2. Let your Hand suppress the manifestations of my ego and do away with my attachments to the past. 3. Spare me my brother's sorrow and agony. Let their mistakes be my tutor. 4. Grant me the discipline to see what is and act according to what is. 5. Empower me with Joseph's vision and the intellect to understand, analyze and capitalize on this eternal cycle. 6. Let your Light subdue the demons of Greed and Fear. 7. Let me find wisdom and good advice in your Word. 8. Give me the prudence, patience and knowledge to grow your wealth. 9. Allow me to discriminate myself from the deadly crowd and warn me of future dangers. 10. Appoint Time to be my guide and may you be my mentor.

In ______'s name, I pray. Amen

6 Jun 2009 Crossing the Ocean

If you want to cross the Ocean you must first know your ship, in and out. You must know how to sail and how to handle her - you have to be a master of your ship. Then you must know the time and season, waves and currents. You will need a compass to keep your direction and know how to read the stars in heaven.

Once you are out in the sea, there is no one to talk to, no one to listen to, you trust your knowledge and keep to your direction, and be aware of the changing tides and season. There will be waves big and small, and you must know how to ride it skilfully.

Once in a while, you may come face to face with intimidating creatures that threaten to swallow your tiny ship, like a 30-feet Great White Shark, a monster 40-feet wide Octopus, , a giant 50-feet wing-wide Albatross or Pirates of the South Seas. It is wise to sail away and keep your distance.

Loneliness can kill you unless you enjoy the art of conquering and sailing the waves and the challenges of the Ocean. Remember, the great masters never sink their ships for they know if that happens, they will sink with it. They survive by sailing on the line of least resistance. They navigate to safety by reading the patterns of the cloud and the tell-tale signs of the weary birds above, the joy of the surface-swimming fishes and the noises of the foaming seas. They know the coming of bad times when the sea is like a giant mirror and when silence envelops the horizon. When a big storm is sighted in the far horizon, they steer clear by heeding this eternal rule, “Never sail into the eye of the storm.” Never also to sail into the Seas of Bermuda and Cayman Islands.

In the day, a sea gull may drop in to say hello. In the night, the stars will keep you company. In the captain's cabin, you will have to read your chart mindful of the perils ahead and keep a record of the distances travelled.

Only when you love the Ocean is life on the Ocean a challenge. If you are a master sailor, you will be able to tame the Ocean's unpredictability and tantrums.

A master trader is like a master mariner.

6 Jun 2009 Is Temasek becoming another Berkshire?

Temasek has taken a beating and is retreating from her global campaign. The new strategy as you know is called the 10203040 Strategy.

There was call for Temasek to help local firms and today’s ST featured an article "Building world-class Singapore firms". With Temasek's financial power, nothing is impossible.

Maybe the political leadership has awakened and begin to question: Why buy already-made world-class firms? Can’t we create our own world-class firms?

After the last massacre at Mt C, Mt ML and Mt BOA, they realized after the severe casualties that it is better to do our own. Thus, it is not surprising they are picking Olam and it is a way to help Olam become a global firm.

If my analysis (speculative thinking and mind reading) is correct, the next important question to ask is: Which other firms will Temasek help to bring them to global status?

Helping the local firms is helping Singapore. Is not this the social responsibility of Temasek? Why did it take them so long to realize this?

At the end of the road, Temasek will become another Berkshire - a company holding on to 40 to 50 solid Singapore stocks. How I wish MM LKY can approve an ipo of Temasek.

When I buy Berkshire I am buying a basket of 45+ good stocks. It saves me the trouble of asking what to buy. I let Warren Buffett do the thinking and analysis. Then, I let him work my money while I travel to India for a nice massage - no worry, no thinking.

5 Jun 2009 Market feeling the 38% Fibonacci resistance

Global markets appear to be feeling a bit tired after the hefty 3 months of unprecedented Bull Run.

Technically, one should sell at the 38% and wait to get back in (reload) on a 40% correction (March to Jun rally). But traders have this dilemma - first half is bad, second half 2009 is good. So what to do - wait for second half and face a correction or lighten up.

If you r not fully loaded, you do not have this problem. But if u r fully loaded, you have to make a decision - lighten up and reload later, and forgo the opportunity if the market continues to rise.

Next - how much to lighten up? Definitely, not more than 50% of the portfolio unless u feel the global 'green shoots' is a fake or the N Koran Nuke is a hot issue or the Swine Flu is spreading too wide (Singapore getting more cases of Swine victims....could be the reason for the cooling).

I think there is an important data from US tonight - something like job data. Can anyone confirm?

As for me, I am leaner by 20%.

4 Jun 2009 Identify complete/near monopoly stocks in Singapore

Monopoly is special. Companies that enjoy monopoly are rare. If you can find one, do not hesitate to include it in your radar screen. When the price is cheap, do not hesitate to acquire it.

Before you begin investing, it is necessary to start identifying the businesses you want to acquire. One that is done, the next step is to wait for the right price to acquire it. This will require patient stalking. The perfect time to acquire them is either in a state of financial crisis or when they are on the operating table or when the market enters into a bust cycle.

Can you identify the stocks that enjoy monopoly or near-monopoly in Singapore?

Let’s hear from you. I will compile and share the feedback. We learn and grow together.

3 Jun 2009 Malaysian laggard banks – Public Bank and MayBank

If you are running out of ideas and stocks to buy, you may like to take a look at two Malaysian banks - MayBank and Public Bank. Both are trading below the 200MA. Bumiputra Commerce is already way above 200MA. These are the TOP three banks in Malaysia.

Public Bank is well run and highly profitable. MayBank was caught in the ‘untidy’ purchase of an Indonesian bank from Temasek (poor acquisition, maybe corruption).

3 Jun 2009 Count the Waves in Olam

Would you like to try counting the waves in OLAM. As you know, Temasek is now a BUSINESS PARTNER of Olam.

What is your conclusion after analysis? Or what did you discover?

PS: Study the line chart and bar chart as well.

2 Jun 2009 Satyam Computer – is it an opportunity or not?

You may have about this episode and this company. The company cooked the book and was caught in January 2009. The stock plunged from $30 to $1. A white knight by the name of Tech Mahindra came to the rescue.

The patient has stabilized and shockingly, is breathing again. I have wanted to inform you but somehow I kept on missing my keyboard. I bought this 'junk' stock at 1.88 and yesterday days ago at 2.26. Again I missed out emailing you. Tonight, the stock was up to 2.65.

Why do I buy this stock-in-trouble?
1. Satyam is still a good brand. I don’t think it stink. 2. The key is after 5-6 months, investors tend to forget the episode and life goes on. 3. The appearance of a white knight. 4. The company is cutting costs - reducing manpower and office cost 5. The govt appears determine not to let this Indian icon fail. 6. Under the white knight, business appears to be returning. 7. If the world is in a recovery, I see this stock price rising in tandem - remember, when the tide rises, all boats - sea worthy or leaky, will rise and sail.

What is the downside risk? If rescue or the patient relapse and go into coma, the price will be back to the low of $1. The risk is $1 i.e. 50%.

Can I afford the risk? Of course I can as I am using foreign capital to capture a big fish. I tried this tactic on Las Vegas and MGM; and I won. Now I am betting on Satyam. We must learn now to risk smartly and wisely. In US, the stock symbol is SAY.

2 Jun 2009 Wave B is 38, 50, 62 or 100?

The global stock market completed Wave A in March, and it is currently driving on Wave B. Technically, Wave B top is either 38%, 50% or 62%. The worse scenario is a shocking recovery towards Oct 2007' high of 3900. Nobody knows which will be the real target. Wave B is a big sucker's rally.

Should we sell at Wave B and accumulate later at Wave C? Yes, we should do something - the options are: Sell all, sell 2/3, sell half or sell 1/3; the brave may not sell. Your decision will depend on your game plan and objective.

In the last Cycle, Wave B top out in the year 2000 with a shocking major event - Enron. Wave A was hit by Asian-Clob Crisis which bottomed out in Sep 1998. In total, Wave B took 15 months. Will the current Wave B runs for 15 months ie till Jun 2010? Coincidentally, Jun 2010 is the World Cup in S. Africa.

For Wave B to stop rising, there must be a significant event strong and shocking enough to kill it. What will that event be? Nobody can know. We can only open our eyes, stay on the alert and be not paralyzed by it.

CNBC discussion this morning at 5.30: CNBC said, "It is a real BULL MARKET". We will follow this Bull Run and see how crazy it can run. Wave B can be very exciting; like I said earlier in another email, "Put on your seat belt."

Read attached article below from Vice Chairman of Blackrock declaring a US economic recovery in second half!

BlackRock’s Doll: Recovery Will Start in Second Half Monday, 1 Jun 2009 By: JeeYeon Park

The ‘green shoots’ are starting to show some leaves — and we’re getting more good news, said Bob Doll, vice chairman of BlackRock.

“The market is saying that the worst is behind us,” Doll told CNBC.

“We’re having cyclical improvements despite our secular problems.”

He expects to see the beginnings of a “slow economic recovery” in the second half of the year. Doll also offered investors his take on the best sectors to buy.

Recommendations: 1. Energy 2. Consumer Discretionary—Retailers 3. Technology 4. Health Care

2 Jun 2009 Economic recovery versus Oil price recovery

Yes....economies are due to recover in second half according to Black Rock's Vice Chairman. But the frightening thing is OIL which is trading at $68 now. Remember Oct 2007 when Oil prices rose above my threshold of $93, the stock market top out and plunged.

My worry is: Will Oil price again derail the stock market rise? What will be the threshold where we say, "It is enough, I am getting out of stock."

The general public seems to past very quickly. The funds did not, that’s why they are still holding cash. But with the stock prices marching continuously upward in the past 3 months, they are caught in a precarious situation - "To sit out or to jump in?"

If they sit out and stock prices rises, they are in deep shit. If they jump in and stock prices fall, they are in deep shit.

For me, if Oil prices rise above $80, I suggest extreme caution and agility. Or if someone influential starts to issue Oil forecast. Or we ask, "At what oil price will the economic recovery be derailed?" In the past it was $93.

It is time to watch the crowd, your friends who last vowed never to 'touch' stocks forever, the retiree Uncles and Aunties, or the queues the void space at Raffles MRT.

1 Jun 2009 What do you think of this article appearing in the ST Sunday?

ST Article heading: $3M bet on REITS pays off
Articles like these will inspire and invite the public to come it. It will trigger greed among the masses. Is this a trap?

Who really wrote that article? Was it spoon-fed? Is there a danger? Anyway, this man looks 'mischievous' and has a sinister look. Maybe the big boys are planning to get out! So they 'plant' a juicy success story in REITS.

Watch

the market in the next ten days. I am not feeling comfortable with such juicy news. Remember this simple rule - the crowd must come in so that the smart money can sell to them. Tell me your comment.

1 Jun 2009 Chinese Banks completed mega Wave II, gong for mega Wave III

I studied the Chinese banks chart and realized that they are beginning Wave III which means that eventually, in the long run, you will see new highs....much much higher highs.

For examples: 1. BOC's high was 4.60. Now at 3.60. 2. ICBC's high was 7.20. Now 4.80 3. CCB's high was 8.50. Now 5.00

All of them completed Wave II in a simple ABC structure.

In conclusion, we can safely conclude that the overall Chinese market has completed a mega Wave II and is undergoing mega Wave III now.

Or is China in Wave II (B) after completing Wave II (A) in October 2008? If that is the case, then there is another opportunity to buy into China when Wave II (C) unfolds. Be ready.

29 May 2009 UBS above $14.80 calls for a buy....for wave v and a penetration of the 200ma

UBS highest was April 2007 with a Triple Thrust Top. It then went into a record 24 months decline!

UBS broke the uptrend line and 200MA in July 2007. Since then, it has not seen daylight until this month May.

The 200MA was violated on 6th of May but there was a lack of interest and weighted down by the bearish sentiment.

But now the scenario appears different - there could be a major change in psychology. The cash-rich Funds are nervously sitting on the sideline waiting to shoot if there is another round of good news.

Unfolding a five- wave structure means a Wave of a higher degree. And that could mean either 1 or a.

OK Lets discuss this on CE Saturday..... Waves are hard to describe in words. If you write too much, the words start to wave and chance is you will feel sea sick and vomiting can be expected. But I know some of you just cannot wait for Saturday; they will (cheong29) plunge in tonight @NY Friday.

If you already owns UBS, you may consider averaging up with the comfort that the shorter moving averages are about to pierce through the 200ma. The probability is high unless lightning strike! In that case, I bear no responsibility. The risk is yours to take; the profit is yours to enjoy. You have your own gun, I have mine too. Our bullets eye the same target. We are different but the consequence is similar.

A 20% Correction yields $20.77 while a 38% yields $29.00. The last trade was $14.66. You decide. Good luck!

PS: CE Saturday will be restricted to 24 pax only. Unless you do not mind, sitting in the pantry! So far 22 responded.

28 May 2009 Put on your seat belt and be prepared for ....

It is getting very close and very nervy....the entire global stock market has been sitting below the 200MA. Of course, Singapore, HK, China and India plus some others are well above and beckon those below to "Come join me; be merry and rejoice!"

We may experience an explosive upside move in the days to come unless out of the blue, a big bad news flash through the sky. What can that news be?

To date, the Swine Flu failed; then N Korea's Nuke failed; Oil prices also failed; and the weak US $ also failed. Will the Rest of the World goes to war with N Korea - I think this proposition is pure fantasy unless N Korea starts a war. It will be the perfect excuse for the West to fight.

With stocks trading below the 200MA, I thought it may be wiser to lighten up for example MSFT and INTC. I was wrong - those US stocks that I lightened up, shot up and penetrated through the 200MA from the bottom up. I was thinking like a Temasekian - wiser to hold on to Asia and lighten up on USA. Watch closely MSFT and INTC - they are very close to breaking the 200MA resistance. Meanwhile the Apples and Googles, already way above the 200ma, are continuing their advances.

One fact is certain - the Funds are UNDER-INVESTED. The Funds has seven more months to perform their bottom line. And with news that the "worst is over" and there is likelihood of the end of recession before 2009, the pressure is on the managers to build back their position in order to show a credible performance.

With the market on the heat, it seems that some hedge funds are coming back in to ride the volatility - their motto being "strike when the iron is hottest."

Looking across the spectrum of global markets and their charts, I am feeling something, an uneasy but good feeling. It is as though an earthquake is about to occur. I hope my gut feel is right. Anyway, I am sitting tight on all my long term positions and putting on my seat belt.

It is nice to imagine a similar market rally in 1999 after a bottom in Sep 1998. Well, we are in the year 2009, and the bottom was 2008. But should the unimaginable happen, be mindful that the good times may last not more than twelve months. That means March 2010. I will be glad and happy to throw in my towel. Let’s not ask of the market and dictate our terms but instead let the market offers us what it can.

I know the trader's mind - it is never enough. Yes, money is limited but we should not regret. Trade within your means and affordability; and do not invite trouble. Should our outlook be wrong, at least we can stomach the punches deliver by a falling market.

Daily, every morning on waking up, I spend an hour to three hours working my Yoga and Pranayama. Have you been practicing or given up already? Please do not stop Yoga and Pranayama. I can only tell you that Yoga and Prana is THE BEST form of health system. It is a gift from Heaven to Mankind - a gift for man to maintain a healthy body. I am happy to spend time on Yoga as I am getting healthier daily. I hope you can learn it and do it.

Oh....I am going to grab my beer bottles and wait eagerly for the final football for the year - The Champions League between ManU and Barcelona.

28 May World’s safest banks – top 50 – attached jpg

1. #1 top bank is KFW from Germany! 2. Rabobank rank #4 3. HSBC rank #19 4. Wells Fargo rank #21 5. DBS rank #27 6. UOB rank #37 7. OCBC rank #37

27 May 2009 Banyan Tree follow up

Please do not tell the world that I recommend Banyan Tree. In fact, I was meditating (yoga yoga) under a Banyan tree and saw a vision of a... a technical vision that this stock is lying dangerously like a cobra below/under/in the 200(MA) bushes, waiting to strike....but it needed an instigator to help it raise her hood and sting. Coil up it did - 8.4% gain in one day. Look for Wave v to break through the 200MA at 60 cents.

Banyan Tree has a chart bottom. Do you what know the name of the bottom pattern and continuation pattern? We will discuss this on CE Class this coming Saturday, 30th May 2009, 12nn to 5pm.

But still I cannot take credit as the saying goes, strike when the iron is hot or in another way, when the trend is there, anything you dare to touch turns into gold. When the trend is rising, you do not need a PHD; any school boy will be able to tell you so.

So what really inspired the market to surge today? Question: Can you identify the top two news in Straits Times today (27th May 2009)? Or in another way, what were the reasons for the strong surge in STI today?

27 May 2009 Dear Fellow Traders travelling on the Royal Highway of Investment and SSAR Students!

Trading is an art and it can be mastered. Never say cannot, always say CAN! Yes! We can. Yes! I can!

Today, I have shown you a perfect example on Banyan Tree. Some of you may have been eyeing this counter for some time, but still are not able to come up to the final thing - ACT! I hope the email or sms alert today, did triggered you to "do something".

Yes anyone can master a skill but like any skill, this trading skill needs time to master. Over time, you build up a reservoir of experience. That experience is the most expensive commodity; in that experience, you become an expert in identifying opportunities, in timing opportunities and in analyzing scenarios.

If you have ten years or more to live, learning this skill should be the first priority. This art is unlimited in scope, capacity and unpredictability, yet we can still ride out a success. There will be times when we fail and everything seems not to work; there will also be times when everything works to perfection. The loser is the one who do not understand and gave up. The winner is the one who continues to pursue this dream; driven and motivated by a passion and a self belief that he will be equally successful, if not more than the person who had taught and guided him.

In this Kurushetra (Battlefield), I know one truth - no man is a master. I am not a master. I am only a traveller. I am a journeyman like everyone - looking for opportunities and looking for errors of lesser beings. We are all equals in this arena of war - our bullets may vary, our heights may differ but we are equally subjected to the same stress and face the same risk.

Whether we survive our not, depends on our store of experience accumulated over the years, plus a mastery of the wisdoms of the ancients. The travelling warriors of the past has this rule posted on the blood-littered highway - Make no Major Mistake, and safety will be yours to take, victory will be yours to rule. In this, we must adore and treasure.

27 May 2009 Banyan Tree

Watch Banyan Tree - Wave iv below the 200MA. FA outlook not superior but TA seems to be a laggard stock with OBV into uncharted territory.

27 May 2009

CNBC report discussion: 1. Funds are underinvested 2. People are still short

Advice - Do not fight the tape; there have been a lot of bad news but the market is not correcting.

Beware - DJI and many stocks are threatening the 200MA. Once stocks + esp DJI rise above 200ma, those under-invested funds have NO CHOICE but to GRAB stocks to fill their tank.

Even MSFT and INTC are hovering below the 200ma and threatening to violate from below. Tonight, MSFT surge by a $1.

Already in Singapore, I think 70-80% of good stocks are trading above the 200ma.

I find the US medical stocks like Astrazeneca, Merck, Novartis and Pfizer very interesting. Astrazeneca is above the 200ma while the rest are hovering below.

27 May 2009 Strange answer to “Which news would interest parents with young children?”

I find it very amusing and funny to receive an answer to the below question:

Which news would interest parents with young children? Answer: Solar energy

I think this student probably did quite badly in his school's multiple choice examination. I hope he knows how to choose the right stocks for his long term portfolio.

25 May 2009 What is the important news today?

Have you been compiling your own news? Information is king.

There is a couple of news in today's ST: 1. Newcastle Boro relegated! 2. Keppel sell SPC stake to Petrochina for $1.47B 3. SM upbeat on ties with Malaysia 4. Singapore hotel market may firm up in 2010 5. FED likely to keep interest rates near zero for a while 6. 18 firms off to Germany to seek solar energy deals 7. MM LKY visit Jiangsu and Suzhou 8. Thakral - A marriage headed for troubled waters? 9. China national drowns in sea off Changi Beach

Questions: 1. Which news is relevant to a strategic investor with a time frame of five to ten years? 2. Which news would interest a sports fan? 3. Which news would interest a speculator? 4. Which news would interest an ageing investor? 5. Which news would interest a short term trader or opportunist? 6. Which news would interest parents with young children? 7. Which news would inspire hope for high risk traders? 8. Which is the most important news to you?

For details of the news, please read today's Straits Times.

May 25 2009 Gate crashing our student’s event

Please note we do not encourage GATE CRASHING into any of our programme. We advise you to register your intention by responding to our email. We hope you understand our need to plan the logistics and catering.

We will not hesitate to kick the students out if there is no reservation. Please response to our email invitation promptly.

Similarly, if you failed to turn up without valid reasons, we may bar you from future events. Please note we do record attendance.

24 May 2009 If you were Oei Hong Leong, how would you trade the currency from Jan to Oct 2008?

See attached ppt.

24 May 2009 FA lags TA by 6-9 months

Most economists and leaders think that the global economy should recover after September or at most beginning 2010.

But TA has already determined a bottom and global markets are poised for a strong recovery. It is technically bullish. So Wave A is completed. Now markets will be heading for Wave B up.

As the saying goes, TA leads FA by 6 to 9 months.

23 May 2009 CE May 2009 – 5 hours workshop on identifying opportunities through chart pattern

For this coming CE May 2009, I like to conduct a solid charting session on Pattern Recognition - identifying reversals and continuations patterns combined with waves but without moving averages. The entire session will just be practise, practise and practise. We will try to work on as many charts as possible - from any market - during the five hours workshop.

Chart will be printed on the spot and students will work in it with pencils and rulers. Tables and chairs will be provided. I think the room can accommodate 20-25 pax.

There will only be ONE session - so please indicate your availability as soon as possible as it will be a first come first serve basis.

The time session is unusually long - 5 hours - from 12 to 5pm. Please hv heavy breakfast or brunch. There will be a coffee break.

Some student maybe called upon to present on the whiteboard.

Please reply asap.

19 May 2009 What was the biggest ST news today?

What can you conclude and how can you profit from it?

In the past email, everyone scored well - the biggest news was Temasek and its portfolio reallocation and refocus? But everyone failed to think out of the box. No point knowing Temasek's new plan. The implications of the announcement and the impact of the plan on third parties or what we called multiplier effects or fallout effect. Only one guy got it dead right.

Try again with this biggest news today.

19 May 2009 Merck stock

CE, Take a look at Merck & Co, US medical stocks. Can u see her bottom?

Describe the bottom if you think you know.

17 May 2009 Temasek panic – did you?

Did you panic in January to March 2009? Temasek did - sold BOA in January to March 2009 which was the wave v of Wave A. If you did not, you were one up on Temasek. If you continued to accumulate, you are two up on Temasek. What were the mistakes they made?
1. Bought at the beginning of the bear cycle.
2. Did not observe the fundamental investing rule of "buy when the crowd sells, or sell when the crowd buys".
3. They were "conned" and cheated or "sold" by Merrill Lynch. Remember, I said never to listen to ML or read their public report and analysis. These big guys are wily and professionally unprofessional. They betray one to favour another. They are brokers - brokers betray one side to favour the other. I am sorry if you are a remisier.

What makes you better than Temasek?
1. Of course, it was the training you had undergone, the knowledge you acquired and your understanding of how investors catapulted.
2. You learned the behaviours of Waves, the psychology of investors and the psychology of Self.
3. You did not succumb to FEAR. In the first place, you did not Greed.

Our dear Miss Ho Ching, in my opinion, is a better Engineer. She is not a marketician. Wherever she went, bust was the end. Trading requires a different mental and psychological make-up. As I said in the classroom - in business, white is white and black is really black, but in trading, white can be black and black can be white. It is not science; it is part art, part science and part mass psychology.

Successful traders need no degrees or titles. Successful traders need un-common commonsense; they need to think out of the box or rather opposite to the box.

So students, pad yourself on your back that you did not panic in March 2009. Where Temasek jumped from the 50th Floor, you remained cool, calm, clear, composed and confident.

But to be honest with you - I guess 10% of the students did "jump" too. Maybe you did not jump in Jan-Mar but you did jumped when Swine Flu hit the headline in April 2009. A first time mistake is forgivable but a second time mistake is unforgivable. Avoid making the same mistake ...in the future. When? I don’t know....but it will be many years down the road.

17 May 2009 Warren Buffett stock movement – attachment

Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway Adds to J&J, Wells Fargo, USB Stakes - But No Blockbuster Buys Posted By:Alex Crippen

Even though Warren Buffett always says he likes stocks more when they're cheaper, he didn't do a lot of buying as Wall Street's major indexes fell to their bear-market lows (so far) in early March.

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has just released its first quarter stock portfolio snapshot, and there are no blockbuster buys or new names.

As he hinted during his live CNBC interview last week, Buffett may have "run out of gas" and decided to keep a substantial cash cushion rather than plunging into stocks. While conceding that it is currently "among the more attractive" times to be an investor, he told Becky Quick that stocks were "far cheaper" in 1974 and 1975.

A few of Berkshire's stakes did, however, get larger.

Buffett added to Berkshire's positions in Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, US Bancorp, Norfolk Southern and Nalco Holding during the first three months of the year.

Berkshire's stake in J&J [JNJ 55.41 0.39 (+0.71%) ] rebounded by 13.6 percent, or about four million shares, rising to 32.5 million as of March 31, compared to 28.6 million at the end of December.

15 May 2009 What was the biggest news in the Straits Times today?

After my Yoga, I was having breakfast and flipping through the ST newspaper and saw one important big new. Do you know what that news is and the implications?

Tell me.....

15 May 2009 Khangsar back home safely, your Yoga continues or stops?

The Teacher departed on Wednesday night and was safely home. He expressed with fruitful stay in Singapore and was surprised by the keenness of the students. We were betting on five students at most but ended up with 10 for the first session and 4 for the second crash session.

With the Teacher back home, I wonder whether u r continuing and practising Yoga and Pranayama.

Maybe we can gather once a month to practise together at the Labrador Park (not the shelter but open space next to Keppel Club, to the extreme left), in the early morning 7 am. Else a session at MacRitchie Reservoir can be excellent.

As for me, I am doing it daily without fail. Even my hernia has vastly vastly improved not to mention, an energised body, 'healthy younger look' as most of you said, mental calm, sleep well etc. There is nothing except time to lose BUT all to gain.

Important - Yoga can be practised even with light food but Pranayama MUST be practised with ean empty stomach ie without food for five hours. Breathing can be done anytime and anywhere - walking, sleeping, lying down, and watching TV, driving, talking, swimming or even running.

Have you tried cooling down the (internal heat) body using Sitakali and Sheetali?

I believe Yogasanas and Pranayama are the fundamental basic for good health. Well, I am still a learner...just took up this Yoga in January 2009. I tried Qigong and Taiqi in the past, but I never experienced such positive and beneficial impact practising Yoga and Pranayama. It truly benefits the body, mind and spirit.

Maybe three or four months down the road, we can invite him down again if there are new students keen to learn. THe older ones can polish and fine tune the concept. I am learning and the learning is fun.

BTW, Yoga and Pranayama is not religious and has no denomination. It was developed and introduced 3,000 years ago as a health system - the way to good health. The Chinese adapted it further to include defence and combat; thus they exact a level of secrecy as it is considered a fatal weapon or a life-threatening method.

13 May 2009 Yoga breathing helps Golf play

Believe it or not - this was the feedback from one of our student who played golf after his crash course in Yoga: "What i did was do deep breathing before attempting a swing; it minimised my mistakes and calm down myself; brain becomes more connected to the body as in motor signal, and the club hits the ball on the sweet spot."

The Olympians were masters of breathing. After practising Yoga for two months, I was able to swim 40 laps (25m pool) nonstop and could easily go on till 100 laps if I want to. I did not experience tiredness of muscles or ran out of breathe. Yoga improves our stamina and gives unlimited energy.

If u practises Yoga, I am sure you will get deep sleep every night. Even if the sleep is short, u do not feel it yet u feel fresh and full of vitality.

Give yourself a chance to practise Yoga and Pranayama...and see how your body benefits from it.

11 May 2009 Suspended stocks as at 11the May 2009 Going thru the A-Z stocks in SGX.COM, you may like to know the stocks under suspension as at 11th May 2009: 1. AdvModules 2. AdvSCT 3. AGVA 4. AsiaDekor 5. BeautyChina 6. China Sun 7. China PDye 8. ChuanSH 9. CityNeon 10. FerroChina 11. FibreChem 12. Guangzhao 13. InchKen 14. JurTech 15. L&M 16. Maveric 17. MemoryD 18. NEL 19. OrientCent 20. ZhuoJilong 21. Zhonghui It is very important to INVEST or BUY only GOOD STOCKS - stocks that can last at least TEN YEARS, stocks that you can SLEEP WELL and without WORRY that it will go BUST caused by poor management, cooking book or siphoning of asset/profit. The three simple philosophies of successful stock investing are: 1. Choose the Right Stocks 2. Acquire them at Right Price and Right Time 3. Have plenty of future Time, Patience and Confidence Do not panic at the sight of a Crisis Sexy stocks are good for one to five nights of fun; grand old dames maybe boring but in times of crisis they stand out like a rock. Yes, you can have some FUN with sexy stocks but do not get MARRIED. It is wiser to fall in love and sleep with OLD HACKS that has been in the business for years than those ‘freshies’ who took the catwalk. 9 May 2009 Quarterly 2009 Gathering – May 22nd and 23rd In January 2009, we had our Annual Gathering. This coming May 22nd and 23rd we will hold a Quarterly Gathering - the first for 2009. We intend to do it different this time. It will be more of Questions & Answers, troubleshooting and sharing of good and bad experiences. You can contribute or you can listen to others or you can just come for tea-coffee-catching up old friends. Venue: 434-A Telok Blangah Road Time: 22nd Friday - 7-10pm; 23rd Saturday - 2-5pm Light food and coffee/tea Cost $20 Agenda: 1. Technical analysis of STI 2. Review of January 2009 Seminar 3. Did you ride the Obama Magic? 4. Did you recognize the stock market bottom on 9th of March? 5. Questions & Answers - troubleshooting your problems 6. Sharing of good and bad experiences 7. Successful and unsuccessful investors - a discussion Please REPLY to this email to reserve your seat. Max standing capacity 30. 5 May 2009 Raffles Education follow-up RaffEduc up 5 cents today with super hi-vol of 60M; closed at 51 cents. This stock was slow to take off but I still like its technical and business and its location. Being a laggard means there is still upside room for this stock to rally. I you do own some of this stock under your short term portfolio. Did not see any huge X trades but there were a couple of big trade done like 600+, 500+ and 300+ lots. I guess people are scrambling to buy this laggard stock and re-examining its business and fundamental. Cheers! We highlighted this stock in the last CE. On the 28th, it fell below the chart point and stop loss at 42 But I decided to override my stop and observe for another day as I was not too sure of the Swine Flu effect. I studied the market’s reaction to the Bird Flu in 2003 and decided not quit but to slog it out. I was prepared for the market to drag one or two months but like everyone, was surprised by the sudden and hasty global stock recovery. My out of the box think-tank conclusion was - the funds are underinvested and this Swine Flu was supposed to be the best opportunity for them to load up. Thus, I worry not. Did I sell any of my long term position? No. I am immune to what is happening as I bought those stocks with a 5 to 10 years plan. So why look and worry about the short term price movements and events. It is good to keep the long term portfolio out of sight and out of mind. When prices rally we are always tempted to sell out our long term portfolio forgetting the purpose when it was bought. Remember and stick to your objectives not the profitability. 5 May 2009 Answer to where is the STI now Answer 1: Completed Wave A, now undergoing Wave B. Expect Wave B to unfold in three waves - a, b and c. Most probably completed a and b and unfolding c now. Answer 2: 1. The strong surge was attributed to breaking above Wave iv high 1960 which is also the Double Bottom's Neckline. 2. Broke the psychological 2000. 3. Plus breaking wave a (B) high at 1947 4. Double Bottom Pattern Answer 3: The upside potentials are: 1. 2200 Down trend line from 3900 Top established in Oct 2007 2. 38% yields 2400 3. Double Bottom objective yields 2475 about. 4. 50% objective at 2675 about 5. 62% yields 2972. 5 May 2009 Where is the STI now wave wise? Question 1: Where is the STI now - in wave terminology? You should know the answer if you apply the corrective waves counts. If you do not, there are many reasons you can offer: 1. forgotten about waves but remembered all the bearish news 2. drowned by the waves 3. lack knowledge of the wave 4. lazy to think of the waves 5. lose confidence of the waves Question 2: Why was/were the technical reason/s for the strong surge in STI yesterday? Question 3: What is the upside potential or objective? To know this answer, you need to apply Fibonacci % calculations. Question 4: Did you accumulate when the market was cascading down, unwanted, despised and cursed by the masses? Or were you guilty of distribution? Send your answers and I will send you mine. PS: Yoga and Pranayama can increase your brain power by 1 to 3%. If you are a investor that really can make a difference; a great difference indeed. 11 students signed up for the Yoga+Prana course and all said they experienced 'less hunger', good deep sleep and more energy. I advise you to take up Yoga and Pranayama. 30 Apr 2009 Swine Flu no lassa on markets. Why? Stock markets around the world reacted negatively to the Swine Flu for a day only. Why? The reason is - the US medical circle has already identified the 'devil' and has the medical knowhow to kill it. But they are not going into mass production of the medicine yet. According to their (financial) interest, it is not critical yet and not as widespread. But they are ready. Stock markets heard that the scientists have the ammo to fight the Swine Flu; this gave the US market confidence which is now spreading around the world with the STI rising 61 points at this writing. The initial jitters brought panic selling and "stop buying". Now the market is back to square one - traders are short or has no position and funds do not have enough long. When the Swine Flu hit - I thought it will be a good chance for the market to correct 50% of its six weeks' rally. I was wrong; so is everyone. But this mini-crisis is now turning into a whimper or just an omph. Who cares about Swine Flu? But...ahaha...nobody can be sure that they really have the effective potion to kill the Swine. What if the potion does not work and the Swine becomes a Pandemic? Answer: The Swine will turn us into Roasted Pork! 26 Apr 2009 Swine Flu outbreak in US and Mexico ...market may be derailed Outbreak of Swine Flu in Mexico and US is now a global problem. It is on high alert in S Korea and N Zealand. Think this is like the Bird Flu we experienced in 2003. Think the six weeks bull-run will be forced into a time + price correction. Expect 50-60% correction of the bull run. Do not accumulate more stocks, rather lighten up and see how the scenario unfolds - whether it can spread into a global pandemic. (Bad judgment) 19 Apr 2009 Market Performance analysis – a lesson on timing From the lows of March 2009, the performance to date appears impressive - the Joseph Cycle list of stocks clocked an average of 40% gains with Kepland, JCC and Capland the best performers with 84%, 74% and 68% resp. While the STI basket clocked an average of 44% gains with Yanlord, Kepland and JCC the best performers with 109%, 84% and 74% resp. But if current prices were measured the close on 2nd January 2008, the STI basket is still down an avg of 48% with the biggest losers Cosco, Yangzi and Kepland in negative -81%, -75% and -75% resp. While the JC basket is still down 48% - the biggest losers are Guocoland, Kepland and UE registering -76%, -75% and -61% resp. Conclusion: From the bottom in March 2009, the gains look impressive. But from the top of Jan 2008, the losses are still monstrous and enormous. Only if you had the money to pick up stocks at the exact bottom is the current Bull Run satisfying, else it is just an exercise of fewer losses. Thus, the timing of the stock market is an important subject to master. Hit it at the right time, the result is spectacular; hit it at the wrong time, you know the answer. As in life, stock timing is vital and timing is the essence. It demarcates joy and sorrow. You can have the skill and knowledge and yet fail because of poor timing. You may not have the skill and knowledge yet become successful because you happen to arrive at the right time. Similarly, the timing of your entry into this world will also affect your material success or failure. 18 Apr 2009 Stop running! You will live to regret if you think at 50 and over, you can run marathons to test the body's endurance. Why do I say that? I came back today to know that my very good buddy (from schools, to University till today) was suddenly struck down with a severe back problem. He was admitted on Thursday and the doctor’s immediate advice was “Operation”. In the past more than five years, he has been running the marathons; the last was the recently concluded 42 km. Today, he has paid the price. Suddenly, his felt severe pains from his back down, he has lost control of his legs, he is lying in hospital. He is a banker at the prime of his career. But he is now reduce to 'incapacity' and nobody knows the future. I can only pray that without surgery and resting over one-two months, he can find recovery. I always preached "No Running after 45". Walk yes. Swim absolutely yes. Running damages your joints and spines! No doctors will warn you about that but a little commonsense thinking would make you wiser. After 45 our body begins a natural order of descend - called AGEING! Running speeds it up. But YOGA and PRANAYAMA not only slows it down but improve it. So instead of a bear trend, it begins a slow bull trend. All I can say is "Do not be a hero for heroes die young." Listen to the body as you would listen to the trend. Never fight the trend, never fight the body. Follow the trend, follow the body. Now you know why in my search for "Sustaining and Maintaining Health" I tried Tai-qi, Qikong and Yoga-Pranayama. My conclusion is - the last is the best. Yoga-Pranayama + swimming are non-invasive whereas running and other physical exercises are invasive and destructive. The problems with Taiqi and Qikong are - one, it is too secretive and selfish; two, many teachers do not know the big picture on health, and three, propagates too many shortcuts. It is sad when friends were suddenly struck down by poor health but what can we do when advises fall on deaf ears. Good health is in your palm. You decide its future. There are four stages in our life time: 1. Stage One - age 1 to 25 - growing up 2. Stage Two - age 26 to 50 - plateauing growth 3. Stage Three - age 51 to 75 - downhill growth The fourth and final stage - we prepare to die! The healthy one dies with grace, peace and happiness. The sick dies with regret and pains, and become a liability for others. 18 Apr 2009 Yoga teacher coming on 28th April, lesson starts on 29th Yoga Teacher, TT Khangsar is confirmed arriving on 28th morning April. The first lesson will commence on 29th April, 7.30pm for 90 mins. The course dates are Thu, Fri, Sat, Sun and Mon. Please keep yourself free. Any changes and timing will be announced on the first day. The Teacher prefers early morning for sessions Sat and Sun - can you come early morning like 7-7.30 am? Delayed arrival was due to the India National Election on 23rd April. Those who find the schedule suitable, please inform your friends and response to this email. Venue - my office for the initial two sessions Thu and Fri. Teacher prefers open space like park. Am suggesting we do it at Labrador Park. Can car pool. Please consider this advice - LEARN YOGA PRANAYAMA. Make an effort to acquire this. All I can it is really good for health and keeping healthy. It can lower blood sugar for diabetes, and lower blood pressure, and etc. Try it for two weeks and you CAN FEEL IT YOURSELF. It is pretty immediate -you can feel changes at your body and mind levels. 14 Apr 2009 27th Equity Course 27th Equity Course, June 2009. Every Tue, Thu and Sat. 12 lessons We are starting the 27th Equity Course this June 2009. If you have friends who are interested or need, kindly inform them of the course schedule, and have them either email us or call us - Vivien 98439884 or Simon 97978988. We require minimum of 5 to commence the course or else a deferment to the following month will be necessary. Reminder: C U this Friday 7-10pm or Saturday 2-5pm for the May 2009 Quarterly Meeting. Venue my office. 6 Apr 2009 STI Diary of major events 2mb jpg file - attachment Attached an STI chart (2mb jpg file) showing the major events since 1994. Print it and post it on your workstation. BTW do you have a "business office" at home? Or in your office? The later is morally wrong if you are an employee. You can test your pattern, trend lines and waves skill: 1. Can you identify a five waves down from 3900? 2. Can you identify a two five waves down from 2500 and 2600? 3. Can you identify a Double Bottom? 4. Can you identify a Triple Thrust Top? 5. Can you identify a Spike Top? 6. Can you identify three major Trend lines which turned or killed the prevailing trend? 7. Can you calculate the various Fibonacci objectives? 8. What wave is the STI undergoing now? Have a nice time..... I will be having mine...... in Incredible India..... a place you either hate or love. In mine case, it is love. It is spiritually enriching - to mingle with the poor but happy and hospitable. Come with me to India! The rule says, “Take a break!” All work and NO REST makes a dull Trader. All play and NO WORK makes a Trader poor. Plan, Trade the plan, then go for a Break. Wherever I go, I can still rule and trade the market. This is the beauty of stock trading - the skills I taught you. 5 Apr 2009 EZRA follow-up

Remember EZRA which we highlighted during CE class on wave and objectives. The first two obj was met and the third seems too far or mission impossible.

But last Friday, Ezra closed at $0.80 - more than the target of 77.5

How not to believe in the power of technical analysis!

4 Apr 2009 CDP homepage to check your stock holdings

Instead of waiting for your CDP statement every month, do you know that you can login into CDP Homepage and view your stock holdings, payment, and value at last price?

To login in, you need to remember your CDP Acc # starting with 1681-xxxx-xxxx and password. You can apply online for a password.

CDP keeps track of your stocks you paid by cash. Custodian stocks and foreign stocks are not included.

3Apr 2009 Raffles Education followup

Today, Raffles Education closed at 41 cents, up 3 cents, the 5th most traded stocks today.

As I had expected, the lull of the past three days is now a Left Shoulder of the SHS Bottom.

Tech, a break above the 40MA at 42 and the Neckline at 43, will trigger more buying. It is then a confirmed SHS Bottom - I think by now, the pattern is already on many people's lips.

The loaded Gun was in your hand. Did you squeeze the trigger and shoot?

Anyway, if you did not, the benefit of the doubt says that probably you were already holding long other stocks. As the tide is rising, all boats will be lifted and their sail will flap north.

EQ26 Group is the lucky group - you came to school at the right time. Many of you will recoup some of your course fee.

29 Mar 2009 Market turnaround? Raffles Education

Sharing with you an article in NYDJ - first time the Dow has entered a "technical bull market" - a gain of 20% or more since the current bear market began in October 2007.

This is the 20% Bull Bear Market Rule. That is to say a swing from the highest or the lowest by a margin of 20% is the basis for a classification of a Bull or a Bear market.

You can at the same time, double confirm this with the 200MA, pattern, trend lines, time cycle and crisis.

There is a bottom formation in Raffles Education in the last two months - what can you see? You can show me your powerpoint.

Attachment:
Stocks Surge and Nasdaq turns into positive for 2009 - March 26, 2009. NEW YORK (Dow Jones)

"Up for the year to date" is a phrase that nobody in the stock market had heard for a long time. Until Thursday U.S. stocks surged and the Nasdaq Composite burst into positive territory for 2009 as traders ignored signs of rising unemployment and positioned for a recovery, buying economically sensitive stocks such as Research In Motion, Best Buy and FedEx.

General Motors was the strongest stock on the Dow Jones Industrial Average as the U.S. government looked likely to give the auto giant another shot at a turnaround. GM surged 42 cents, or 14%, to 3.41.

DJI Overall, the Dow rose 174.75 points, or 2.25%, to 7924.56, its highest close since Feb. 12, bringing its gains to 21% from the 12-year closing low on March 9. That eclipses the 19% gain between Nov. 20 and Jan. 2, and is the first time the Dow has entered a "technical bull market" - a gain of 20% or more since the current bear market began in October 2007.

S+P Similarly, the broad Standard & Poor's 500 rose 18.98, or 2.33%, to 832.86 and is now up 23.1% from its closing low on March 9, rivaling its 24% gain between November and early January.

NASDAQ In a promising sign for stock-market bulls, the Nasdaq Composite rose 58.05, or 3.80%, to 1587.00, and is now up 0.6% for 2009. The technology and consumer stocks that make up the bulk of the Nasdaq are thought to be "early cycle" stocks because they react more quickly to changes in the economy.

80-MA Thursday's rally was "definitely a major step in the right direction," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research. One sign of a shift in momentum: the S&P 500 broke through its 80-day moving average, a level that has consistently repelled it since the bear market began in October, Detrick said.

"We'd like to see some separation from the 80-day now," he said. "Things continue to look promising and the trend is higher.

RIM Research In Motion rose 2.12, or 4.9%, to 45.04. Goldman Sachs recommended buying shares of the BlackBerry maker, saying bearish sentiment ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings report would prove unwarranted.

Best Buy rose 4.21, or 13%, to 37.67 after the consumer-electronics retailer projected earnings for the new fiscal year above analysts' expectations as its latest quarter's profit topped estimates.

FEDEX Package shippers FedEx added 3.71, or 8.6%, to 46.98, spurring a rally on the Dow Jones Transportation Index. FedEx and other shippers are stocks that are closely tied to economic cycles.

Red Hat rose 2.60, or 17%, to 17.60 after the open-source software maker posted a 27% decline in fiscal fourth-quarter profit.

Weekly jobless claims gave a less optimistic view of the economy than recent dispatches from the housing market.

New U.S. claims for state unemployment benefits rose last week, and total claims soared to a record high of more than 5.5 million, showing that the economy continues to shed jobs at a rapid clip.

Google (Nasdaq) added 9.22, or 2.7%, to 353.29 after the Internet search-engine company said it will cut nearly 200 people from its sales and marketing teams worldwide for purposes of efficiency.

Dr Pepper Snapple Group rose 2.36, or 15%, to 17.87 after the maker of soft drinks projected profit for the year in line with the average Wall Street estimate. Some analysts had feared trends were worsening in the beverage industry.

Raytheon was up 2.87, or 7.7%, to 40.10 after the aerospace and defense giant boosted its annual dividend and started paying it on a quarterly basis.

Finance One area conspicuously absent from Thursday's rally was the financial sector. Recently, credit-ratings agencies have warned that some banks may not pull through the government's "stress test" without orders to raise new capital. Among the banks most exposed to the value of distressed securities, Bank of America fell 12 cents, or 1.6%, to 7.58, while Citigroup shed 14 cents, or 4.8%, to 2.81.

By Rob Curran, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5176; robert.curran@dowjones.com

27 Mar 2009 Raffles Education

Take a look at this stock in the last three months - pattern, moving average, trend line, wave etc.

Your Trading Manager (TM) is going to India for a month tomorrow. His position is - short 100 lots at $0.405. His trading limit is 100 short and 200 long.

Please take over his book and manage his open position. PS: You can build a long position of up to 200 lots.

27 Mar 2009 Crazy ideas on LVS and MGM

After taking profit on Citigroup, I ploughed some profits buying 500 shares of Las Vegas Sands at $2.40. After taking profit on iShares MSCI Singapore, again I ploughed some profits buying 500 shares of MGM Mirage at $2.89.

LVS high was $150 in 2007. Today it was $3.05. MGM M high was $100 in 2007. Today it was trading at 2.88
Both of them are now a fraction of its glory high.

Just itchy fingers or wisdom trading - betting with foreign capital (profits)?

Well, if both go belly up, it is goodbye to my foreign capital. If the stock prices rise, I will be richer.

The plan is to hold them (small quantity shares only) for 5 to 10 years. Only hope is they do not go bust!

27 Mar 2009 JSH – see attachment

FYI and reading - very interesting company.

26 Mar 2009 Survey portfolio – Are you holding Singapore banks in your portfolio?

I like to know whether you do have any or all of the three local banks - DBS, UOB and OCBC - in your portfolio. If you are not holding any of these three, something is not right.

FYI our local banks are really very strong. Banks are rated as "No Risk" ie they are unlikely to default or collapse. After all, there are only three local banks. 80% of your investment portfolio should be in "No Risk" and "Low Risk" stocks.

Max of 20% of your portfolio should be 'Medium to High Risk" stocks.

Similarly, 80% of your money should be budgeted for long term investment while, 20% budgeted for short term trading.

25 Mar 2009 NAVs of Property stocks

Share with you some of the NAVs which I compiled. CP is Current Price 23rd March 2009:

1. OrchardP – 2.33 Gp, 2.08 Co Dec2008. EPS 7.68. CP 0.535. DC= -77%
2. K REIT – 2.28. Dec2008. CP 0.54. DC= -76%
3. Ho Bee – 1.20 Gp, .33 Co. Dec2008. CP 0.325. DC= -73%
4. Sp Land – 9.44 Gp, 2.57 Co, EPS -28.5, Dec2008. CP 3.14. DC= -67%
5. BanyanTree (Hotels) – NAV 0.73, Dec2008. CP 0.295. DC= -60%
6. Kepland – NTA 3.39, Dec2008. CP 1.39. DC=-59%
7. HPL – 2.35 Gp, 1.62 Co. CP= 0.95 DC= -59%
8. Wheelock – 1.72 Gp, 1.20 Co. Dec2008. CP0.90. DC= -48%
9. BSEMB – 4.4 Gp, 4.85 Co, EPS -1.42, Dec2008. CP 2.32. DC= -47%
10. Capitaland – 3.78 Gp, 2.22 Co, Dec2008, CP 2.20. DC= -42%
11. CityDev – 5.97 Gp, 4.85 Co, EPS 62.5, Dec2008. CP 5.25. DC= -12%
12. Yanlord – 1.02, Dec2008. CP=1.02. DC= 0%

March 23 2009 Next Bull Market (Bloomberg)

The next “bull-market” rally has begun, Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius said, refuting predictions that the equities meltdown will continue.

“Stocks are building a base for the next bull market,” said Mobius, 72, who helps oversee about $20 billion of emerging-market assets at San Mateo, California-based Templeton. The fund is finding “bargains” in every emerging market, which are in “better shape” than developed economies.

Templeton is looking for companies that are “cash-rich,”have low debt and higher dividend yields, Mobius said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Hong Kong. Mobius said he’s looking for companies that can invest for future growth yet have cash left to pay shareholders.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has gained 23 percent sincereaching a four-year low on Oct. 27, outperforming the 2.5 percent drop in the MSCI World Index and 9.5 percent decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

Emerging markets made up the 10 best-performing stockbenchmark indexes this year, with China’s Shanghai Composite Index topping the list with a 26 percent gain.

Brazilian oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Cia. Vale doRio Doce, the world’s biggest iron-ore producer, and Chinese oil producer PetroChina Co. are among the top holdings of Mobius’s Templeton Emerging Markets Trust.

5 Mar 2009 Invest in South Africa

The world's biggest spectator event ie the World Cup Football will be held in Jun 2010 in South Africa. This is 16 months away. The question is: Will there be a stock run or recovery in South Africa ahead of the World Cup event? This is the World Cup theory.

You can participate in the WC Theory by buying iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund through your internet broker who should have access to US Amex market. For more info, you can visit the link below:

http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/EZA.htm

Then in 2012, London will be host to the 2012 Olympics. This is 3.5 years away. The question is: Will there be a stock run ahead of the Olympics similar to Beijing Olympics but definitely less in intensity as the broader cycle based on the Joseph Cycle is still down. You can either invest in IShares MSCI UK Index Fund or buy the individual bank stocks like StandChart, HSBC, RBS, Barclays etc if you are familiar with their fundamentals.

4 Mar 2009 Possible new address in 2011

Come 2011, we may have a new address at One Commonwealth if our purchase offer is successful. We went for a preview and made a counter offer of $370,000 for a 764 sq ft office 30-year leasehold property. As long as we have an office, we can continue to give students our continuous support and conduct Q&A/Quarterly/Annual seminars and be faithful to our motto: Once a student, always my student. At the same time, you can always drop in for tea n 'catch up'.

In the past two years, I have been worrying about the present office giving way to IR development. It is a matter of time as the property is more than 60 years old. This is a nagging worry and I hope to have it remove permanently. We have been keeping our eyes open for alternative office. I have to hedge my risk.

Let’s hope my offer is successful. If so, we will have a new address in 2011. The property is only 3 minutes walking distance from the Commonwealth MRT. It is four MRT stations from my home and no ERP to worry.

Remember the first Vital Knowledge: The world will always be around, bigger and better.

24 Feb 2009
February assault is coming to an end, March is coming

In my Annual Seminar on the 10th January 2009, we mentioned that the "first half outlook will be bad and the second half will be good". There is no denying as it was a fundamental truth.

Not surprising, stocks went through Jan and Feb on a soft knee buckling mode - almost all stocks were drifting down and down and down. It was like a big snake sliding down on its own weight.

Thank God February is coming to an end but not before last week's comment by our PM LHL that the recession will last till the end of the Q3 and it will take three years to correct the excesses of the last Bull Run.

Tonight, the DJI went lower than November's low despite US President Obama's Magic and Package. Banks and Autos bore the brunt of the Bear Cycle.

The Capricorn Effect was good for December month only. The gain in December was wiped off in January. Profits in January turned into losses in February and post CNY. Next we have to face the month of March which is the "report card season" ie the 4Q and FY results. It is an opportunity to differentiate the good companies from the bad. Take for example Raffles Medical reported 35% increase in profit yesterday. The stock hit a high of $1.60 in July 2007. It crashed to a low of $0.535 in Nov 2008. And it is trading currently around $0.71 cents which is $.90 off the highest.

2008 was a spectacular tough year for many companies - 90% of the companies will be reporting lower profit or losses. But life goes on, businesses will adjust and reshuffle, the older and experienced companies will ride through the storm; consumers will have to continue consuming - you can’t eat less in a recession but you can waste not, nor can you eat more but luxuriously.

On January 10th, I shared with you my "7 Vital Knowledge". You should refresh yourself on the seven points expounded, be familiar with it and create confidence for yourself. In a prolonged Bear Phase, it is very easy to lose confidence and cave-in under tons of bad news. You know something - in the bullish year of 2007, many investors expressed their failure and regret for not buying the bottom. But they did not truthfully say, "I was a chicken; I got no confidence and courage." The same thing happened in the 1998 and 1987 Bottoms. It is a repetitive psychological event - the greed and the fear that oscillates in us. Only when you understand this, overcome it with mental strength, will you be able to do what few investors can do.

The Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 ripped off many wealthy people with a couple of famed suicides and scams. Not even SWFs were spared with Singapore losing S$58B i.e. 30% or maybe more. Every rich was poorer. But the real poor - the people at the bottom rung living from hand to mouth - suffered just as bad if not more; they were retrenched indiscriminately with little prospect of future employment. But there is a layer of people who appeared unaffected - the middle income group. The proof was the record sales at the recent Travel Fair. Consumers were snapping up discounted travel packages. Their argument, "Recession or not, we still need a good holiday." This is a perfect example of the saying, "Life goes on."

Don’t be a permanent pessimist! REMINDER: This week is CE Class - 27th, Friday 7-10pm and 28th, Sat 2-5pm. See you. Those who wish to sign up for CE, please call Vivien at 98439884.

19 Feb 2009
I feel sadness for my country and my heart ache

When a hero (a foreigner) saved a Singaporean damsel in distress, he was told to pay for his own medical bill by the government/national hospital. The government has bred a bunch of idiot Singaporeans who operate without 'brain'. The Police and SCDF were smart to award him hero status but when it comes down to money matter - the hero had to pay from his pocket. In all honestly, the Award was a piece of paper while, the SGH bill was in $ and Cents. So why would any Singaporeans want to be a hero in the future. They are sending us the message that, "It does not pay to be helpful and be a hero." In any civilized societies, heroes are the toast of the community and nation but in Singapore, SGH treats heroes as dump stupid.

When the SGH needs more blood, they ask every Singaporeans to donate. They appealed to our heart. But when we help other Singaporeans in distress, the message they send across is - "Do it at your own risk and cost." So why should Singaporeans bother to give free blood to the SGH in future? Maybe we should charge them as they charge patients for our blood.

Yesterday, I was at OCBC Bank to find out more about Fixed Deposit (FD) but I was shocked and disgusted at the way our Banks operate and treat us. My savings account earns 0.25 % interest - that is really peanuts. I asked for the % interest on FD. It ranges from 0.25 to 1.5% from 1m to 5 years. I asked, "What is the penalty for early withdrawal?" Their reply shocked me to the bone. For 5 years FD, the penalty for early withdrawal (less than one year) is 20s%. Vulgar words rang in my mind. I cannot believe what they said and I kept on asking the staff to repeat it - yes 20%, 20% penalty. My wife nearly had a heart attack.

What if we truly need our cash urgently? Pay 20% penalty i.e. 20% of your FD! This is unheard of in the world. Such penalty is a world record. Why do banks treat us that way? They are bullying the consumers. They pay us peanuts and charge us the sky.

I am a blue Singaporeans and my heart aches at such treatments of Singaporeans.

We need an 'Obama' to wake up the high-and-almighty-at-the-top executives - to be more humane, fair and understanding. The government wants us to defend the country and stay as Singaporeans, but the system sends us a very different message. Is it driving away Singaporeans to other shores? It is sad. My heart aches for Singapore.

13 Feb 2009

In the last Asian Crisis, I was hardly any cash and all stocks. Of course, it was very 'cham' when stock prices continued to snake down and shake the nation's confidence. Any cash I had, I pumped into stocks. I had to forgo a lot of things - Be frugal was the buzzword.

I had a long list of stocks including all my CPF. Of course, some stocks end belly up especially the lousy and cheap ones. Cheap does not mean it is good. Remember the saying, "Good things are not cheap, cheap things are not good." It was a lesson to be learnt. It is part of the diversification process - some stocks failed while the rest win handsomely. But I could have diversified wisely. Today, my past mistake is your gain.

So we have to ask which stocks have the capacity to be around in the next ten years. Usually those that had been around for more than 15 years possess the ability and experience to survive crunching times.

What can I get if I had all cash and zero stocks? I don’t think I will be very rich in 2007. In mid 2007, when I review my portfolio, I know it is time to look for exit. It cannot be so good, and good times don’t last.

Similarly, bad times don’t last. This is the Joseph Cycle. At the top of the cycle, it is wise to hold cash, while at the bottom of the cycle it is wiser to hold assets.

Yes, yes, yes .... times are bad. The doomsayers will say DEPRESSION and END OF THE WORLD. But life has to go on; businesses have to go on, trade has to go on, eating has to go on, travelling has to go on, replacing equipment has to go on. Some businesses prosper in bad times and some businesses flounder in bad times too.

It is a CYCLE and the world is governed and dictated by Cycle. Even breathing is a cycle - inhaling and exhaling, birth and death, sunrise and sunset, day and night, up and down, accumulation and distribution, econ growth and recession, expansion and contraction. Even "cash" and "stocks" is a cycle.

Today, the global market is lacking in confidence. Even the brave Lion buys that. So, it is important to stand apart from the crowd and be differentiated - "Where no man dare, I dare." Where no one buys, I buy. Be patient is all we need. Patient means plenty of future time. Then, let the Cycle show the way and the profit.

Looking back with experience, today's crisis where there stock prices are lower and confidence dried up, is no different from ten years ago. Similarly, the glory years from 2005 to 2007, was no different from the glory years in 1992-1994.

What is certain? The ill-wind from America will blows away and good stocks will survive the cold winter. The uncertainty is when and how long.

Why should we be happy? We should be happy as a dollar can buy more now. There is an increase in purchasing power of our cash - that means we can buy more with the same amount of cash. We are richer in a sense! Be happy. That’s to say everything is dirt cheap now. But we can only be really happy if we have the CASH.

10 Feb 2009 I am back from my second India retreat. Prana-yoga course handout

My first retreat in Dec 2008 was insufficient - it was never a good retreat when u had your family members along. This second retreat was excellent as I was alone - so I face my I and I talk to my I and I discover my I.

Today, I am trying to reconnect back to my beloved Financial Market after my rejuvenation. No hurry as all markets are still reeling or skidding in the mud bore down by the 4Q and FY results. Think market will perform true to pundits' forecast that the first half will be weak and the second half will be strong. If that is everybody's thinking, then the smart guy will "consider" jumping the gun ie buying before July, ahead of everyone.

Yeah the news is bad; who don’t know. Everyone knows it and everyone is accepting it. The scenario will turn into a classic - case of the "crowd has no confidence, the smart money is confidence". You should know whose quote that was. 22 Jan 2009
StanChart low was HK78 yesterday

Yesterday morning my broker called to say that SCB low was HK78. I immediately add on at a price of HK79.80.

After buying at HK91 I left an instruction to call me if SCB trades lower. Now I am a proud business partner of Standchart Bank with 1,000 shares.

My objective is long term 5 to ten years. I plan to accumulate on weakness at intervals of 90, 80 and 70, thereafter I will accumulate on strength and positive TA.

This January 2009 is striking FEAR and a reminiscent of January 2008 when the hedge funds sold mercilessly. The New Year 2009 started with plenty of bad news and is fulfilling analysts forecast of "first half bad, second half good". The crowd will buy and swallow this truth but trading market can be illogical to the level of insanity. Over-confidence creates over-valuation, lack of confidence creates massive discount. Warren Buffett sells when the market is in over-confidence and buys when the market lacks confidence. In two simple words, you can call this - contrarian theory.

Yes, the economists will sell you his work - Depression or severe Recession, never seen before since 1930, etc, but what will Warren Buffett be doing? Do you think he will sell his entire portfolio and sit on cash? Or do you think he will be converting his cash hoards in equity?

Last night, I watch Barack Obama's first day in office and I am truly impressed. The first thing he did was to set The House Rules for his staff. Never before has any Presidents or PM done such a thing. The staffs even take an oath. They swear for transparency and openness, no gifts i.e. corruption, freedom of information and accountability to all Americans, no conflict of interest or favouritism even two years after leaving office. President Obama has set the stage for America, and I believe America will emerge from the current ash. In the next few days or weeks, the President will unveil his economic plan which is now kept 'secret'.

This gutsy President is a role model for Americans and the world. I watched the Inauguration until 6 am till my eye lids could not take it anymore. He was so courageous to take 'two walks' in his march towards the White House. I was so afraid and concern for his safety and life.

If I am not wrong - Obama is a reincarnation of Abraham Lincoln and Martin Luther King at the same time. America is truly blessed.

22 Jan 2009 Happy New Year greetings

May we wish you a Healthy and Wealthy Lunar New Year of the Ox. In the Ox Year, tighten the belt, work hard and be thrifty. It is toil time but do not forget your health - so keep fit and adopt a healthy life style. Drink less intoxicants, eat much more organic food and veggies; go for retreat to charge up physical, mental and spiritual energies; fulfil some of your Heavenly Father's work on Earth.

When the Star of Joseph is in descent, it is time to refresh and consolidate knowledge, and to prepare for the next ascent. The experience of the past must be institutionalized and memorised; and let not the mistakes repeat.

In the previous descent of the Joseph Cycle, the wise prepares for the ascension which became obvious and true right up to 2007. Similarly, in the current descent of the Joseph Cycle, we must plan for the next ascension.

The Prophet Joseph says that as bad times do come to an end, similarly good times will also come to an end. In the 2002 to 2008 ascension, those who were prepared for the return of bad times, naturally done well and became even more prosperous.

Let’s welcome the Ox with respect and humbleness. Once again, let me wish you and your family A Happy, Healthy and Wealthy Ox Year. Kong Si Fatt Chye.

18 Jan 2009
When Heaven rules Earth and the Star of Joseph is in descent
In 2008, when Rat rules Heaven, Earth will be plundered.
In 2009, when Ox rules Heaven, work harder and save or perish.
In 2010, when Tiger rules Heaven, Earth will be terrorized.
In 2011, when Rabbit rules Heaven, lay low to survive.
In 2012, when Dragon rules Heaven, fire will ravage lands and seas.
In 2013, when Snake rules Heaven, stay calm or strike if provoke.
In 2014, when Horse rules Heaven, run in four directions.
In 2015, when Sheep rules Heaven, the land enjoys peace and prosperity.

16 Jan 2009
Is Standard Charter Bank HK a really good buy?

The Singapore Govt owns 19% of SCB. It is a UK based bank listed in both London and HK. It is also the top most profitable bank in UK in 2008.

In Dec 2007, SCB hit a high of HK314. In the crash/meltdown of Aug-Sep-October 2008, it hit a low of HK87. Since then it has been trading between H$87 to H$130; it is gyrating either a bottom or pausing before it goes lower. But I reckon the low won’t be very far away.

Today it is trading at 90. In % term, it is 71% off the high of HK314.

Over the past 10 years, SCB has been giving record dividends and earning record profit. Even the first half 2008 result was a record.

The one good thing about SCB is it is not caught in the subprime and has no CDO. In a way, it is a clean bank.

Into the future, London will be the host for the 2012 Olympics. So if you are far sighted enough and invest for the long run say 5 to 10 years, this crisis will blow over and the reward of owning SCB will be tremendous. It would not be unimaginable for this strong bank to recoup its stock price of HK314 down the years.

If that is the case, what will be the return? Assume you bought it at HK100, at HK300, it is $200%. Assume a 5 years’ time span that works out to 40% ROR.

Questions:
1. Is that an attractive investment?
2. Is this possible?
3. What is the downside risk?
4. Would SCB collapse?
5. How much should we invest?

Today, I put in a bid of 500 shares at HK91.00 and it was done. It is currently trading at 89.50 but I am planning to accumulate downward. This is one stock I have been eyeing since 2006. From 2005 to 2007, there was no opportunity to get in as the correction was tiny. The Global Crisis has presented SCB to us at a 71% discount. Do we need an invitation?

In Dec 2008, it was trading in a sideway range of H$88 to H$100, then spurted to 120 before backing down to 89.50 now.

All I can tell you is this - it is an opportunity to be a business partner of UK's Number 1 bank. Be mindful that sitting on S$ cash earns only half a percent interest.

Finally, you may like to ask this question: Which is safer - parking your money in a local bank or owning the # 1 UK bank?

7 Jan 2009
Do you know why the market went down today?

Because of another big fraud ....but this time it was out of INDIA. It involved the world famous Satyam Computers. The fraud was – they cooked the book. It is another Enron! (Enron occurred in year 2000).

The news came during our lunch break. On opening, stocks went soft but nobody seems to know the reason. I received a call from one of our student Vikram who is in India. The stock plunged from Rupee 188 to 35.

Honestly, it is unthinkable that one of the scions of India backfired on investors' imagination.

It therefore, highlights the importance of DIVERSIFICATION - without the sector, within the country and global. That is to say, invest in at least three countries, each country three sectors, each sector three stocks. Diversification goes against the grain of Warren Buffett saying that there is no need to diversify if you find a solidly good stock. But at the end of the day, his portfolio contains 45+ stocks. Is not that diversification? Or will you be arguing that "he just got too much money."

The saying goes, "Never put all your eggs in one basket."

See you this Saturday, 10th January, 2009 - SSAR ANNUAL GATHERING at the Singapore Polytechnic Guild House, Dover Road, Gate 4. Time 2pm to 6pm.

6 December 2008
Dear Students

I saw the chart of DBS this wee morning hours and cannot refrain from informing you.

Over the last ten days, DBS has been hovering flat between $9.00 to $9.50, a very narrow and stable price range. There is a sign of ......

ps: full article was emailed to all students. Will post full article at a later date for public consumption.

5 December 2008
RE: Message of The Joseph Cycle

Put simply, the message is "If you listen to God, and have faith and trust in Him, you will be successful and not suffer the ups and downs of life." The Pharaoh of Egypt believed whole-heartedly in Joseph's words, and the Kingdom of Egypt became the most powerful and richest nation in the Arabian Peninsula.

1. There is a cycle in nature that causes booms and busts – a period of good times lasting seven years followed by a period of bad times lasting seven years.
2. Seven is a spiritual number. Seven is divine. Seven is a mystery. Develop faith, trust and confidence in the divine mystery.
3. You must not be greedy. Know what is enough.
4. Good times will not last forever. Every bubble is bound to burst. Be sceptical after a prolonged period of prosperity. Greed will betray you. Be happy and contented with what you have.
5. It is important to save during good times. Save to be safe. Invest to be rich. Saving is a form of insurance and an umbrella to protect against the coming bad times.
6. Bad times will also not last forever. Opportunities may abound in the worst of times. Be positive during and after a long period of gloom. Trust and faith will give you the strength, confidence and courage to seize opportunities presented at the tail end of bad times.
7. You must know time - when to get in and when to get out. Know what is enough.

#1 says, "There is a cycle in nature that causes booms and busts – a period of good times lasting seven years followed by a period of bad times lasting seven years." And #3 says, "You must not be greedy."

This is the truth. Through the hundreds of years, economies go through a cycle of boom and bust. It is like nature - create and destroy or birth and death. So, economies and stocks are not spared the process of creation and destruction and then emerge again, bolder and stronger, and the cycle repeats.

#4 says, "Good times will not last forever. Every bubble is bound to burst. Be sceptical after a prolonged period of prosperity. Greed will betray you."

Good times end in the latter half of 2007 with the bursting of bubbles in China, Vietnam, India, Singapore...cascading all the way to US and the entire world. When good times end, the fire of destruction comes not in a single but a continuous volleys of troubles, cumulating in a panorama of panic and fear. If we fail to heed the bubble, the message clear states that "Greed will betray you." It is our natural instincts to greed and to fear. The better man is one who is master of his own greed and fear.

#6 says, "Bad times will also not last forever. Opportunities may abound in the worst of times. Be positive during and after a long period of gloom."

We have passed the good times and bad times are in but like the good times, it will not last forever. On top of that, during bad times many common investors tend to run away without realizing that there are many opportunities begging for the wise investors. Yes, we are in bad times but we must be positive that bad times will rotate with good times and in bad times, many good stocks will be trading at a huge discount. The key to wealth is to buy good things at a good price.

#5 says, "It is important to save during good times. Save to be safe. Invest to be rich. Saving is a form of insurance and an umbrella to protect against the coming bad times. "

Yes, in good times we save. But if you do not invest and prefers to sit on cash, you will be poorer when assets inflate. Similarly, in bad times we need to save as much as we can and convert the cash savings into assets, in preparation for the future good times. Thriftiness and frugalness are great virtues but investing those savings is the wisest. Refrain from the natural tendency to sit on cash during the bad times. Refrain also from the tendency to jump into asset at the end of good times. If we learn to avoid these two, we can never be poor.

Dear students
We are in bad times according to the Joseph's Cycle. Yes we must cut cost, save every penny, refrain from excesses, but we must seize the golden opportunities to invest. At the height of good times, assets command the highest premium, while at the depth of bad times, assets begs at the highest discount. That means that at the height of good times, we must sell, and vice-versa, at the depth of bad times, we must buy. If we fail to comprehend this simple and eternal truth, no one can ever help you to be rich.

But friends, whether you will be rich or not, is being decided by God above. If He grants you the ability to discriminate, you will not fail to achieve. Nobody knows whether they are gifted or not as none knows the design of God or His plan. What we can do, which is pretty effective is and simple, is to pray and continuously ask Him to gift us two key assets: Intelligence and Discrimination.

With this message, I wish you all the best for the year 2008 and smooth sailing for 2009. May you have a jolly good and enjoyable Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. May peace, prosperity and goodwill descend on Singapore and its entire people.

4 December 2008
GEMS TV gone to the jemkyard!

In Nov 2006, Gems TV ipo'ed at $1.26. It was hotly chased upward to a high of $1.83 by March 2007.

What happened after that was a raise a question mark on the local exchange and especially the people and bankers who help to bring this company private. In my opinion, it was a financial disaster. The price collapse bankrupted many who thought it was a good investment. If I was an investors, I would felt 'robbed and cheated'. Why?

Just take a look at the price of this stock - it is now trading at four and a half cents. That means this is technically a JUNK stock. How on earth can a newly ipo'ed company became a junkie in two years? Why do they float and sell such rubbish to the ignorant and innocent Singaporean investors?

During the ipo the company was touted as a promising company with huge potential itnernet sales of gems reaching to the entire world. There were promises and dreams. After the high of March 2007, the stock literally plunged in April 2007 and again in May. After that, it was all the way down, down and down. I bought this stock but was quick to take a ten cents loss limit.

But to the many investors out there, they may not be so lucky. They could be sitting on huge paper losses. Many may had bought this hot stocks at $1.30 and higher. Today, at 4.5 cents they are suffering 97% loss on their investment. On top of that, there are many gungho investors who thought averaging downward can help them get out without a loss. The reverse was true - they suffered even greater losses.

Investors be on guard! The exchange is a place for you to conduct business but is not responsible for your demise. It is wise to perform your own due diligence before parting your money or trusting your money with the CEOs of the companies, or based on what the bankers and analysts recommendations. Do your own homework and thinking. The gun is in your hand; if you shoot you have to take both credit and blame. Honestly speaking, Singaporeans are too pampered. The government has been doing all the work for them. As as result, many of them are not able to stand alone especially when it comes to investing.

Investors beware! There are many risks out there. If you lose, someone win. If you win, someone loses. There are risks of distortion, misrepresentation of facts, overstating potentials and capabilities etc.

I cannot imagine myself holding onto this stock say at $1.30 and find it trading at 4.5 cents today. Why are investors so easily lure into such ipo stocks? Greed is one reason. The other reason is a lack of discrimination. Most investors trust too easily. Where money is concern, never even trust your own kins. This is the saying of the wise. Where stock investment is concern, never trust the peddlers of hot stocks, the people who bundled them and the CEOs who run the entity.

Because of greed the world is in such a mess now. Because of greed investors are losing their hard-earned savings and income. Because of greed the world is now a difficult place to trust. Because of greed, it is wiser to invest in the proven, right and blue chip companies with the right management.

Why do people want to buy such ipo stocks? Hope was the reason. Greed was the motivation. Ego was the action. I was a technical trader when I bought that stock and took a small loss. Technical trading has no fundamental. Short term trading is more discipline than facts.

Warren Buffett said we should buy into good businesses. Is Gems TV a good business? Certainly not. Who buys gems? Not man. Do you think woman will buy gems through the internet? If you are a guy, you may think yes. But to a woman, it is NO NO NO. If you had the habit of asking, thinking and probing, it will be impossible to lose your crown or be suckled. The company had a dream; the dream was cooked by bankers; and the investors bought a bad dream. Who wins? Who loses? You know the answer.

In Buffett terms, investors made a big mistake. Buffett's rule is this - Make no mistake.

Be smart. Be critical. Beware.

3 December 2008
Annoucement: US FINALLY CONFIRMED RECESSION STARTED IN DEC 2007

You heard the news ytd - US Recession started in December 2007. It took them 12 long months to confirm. Why I dunno but some people ie insiders, may have benefitted the most if they had the information earlier.

The RULE among US investors is this - Buy stocks nine months after Recession.

In Oct/Nov 2001, the US backdated the recession to Jan 2001. ie they reported the economy went into a Recession ten months ago. But this time, it is 12 months.

Technically, when they announced or confirmed Recession that means the stocks had hit final bottom while fundamentally, the economy can continue to bleed down or enters into a period of major consolidation with the big companies eating up the small companies.

At one stage, Berkshire B share was traded at $2,500 before bouncing heftily to $3,500. Never write off Buffett's stocks. With Buffett stocks, it is always BUY on Weakness! Never panic with this counter because Berkshire is holding all the best stocks in US. At one stage, analysts were laughing at him as his stocks lost 50% ie correct 50%.

Going through the global indices, I noticed that all the major bourses are showing the same kind of pattern - a sign of a cushioning bottom....meaning there could be smart money fishing and buying up stocks during the great panic in October.

The market is positive on Obama... in fact, his announcement of Chief of Staff and Economic Team, was the trigger that halted the decline, causing a grand rally of 1200 points on the DJI.

Technically, we can conclude that the decline fell short of the 2002's support/low of 7250.

On top of that, the market will be entering the most season of the year - Dec and Jan, after going through the horrendous bear season of Aug-Sep-Oct. Well, if you survive, it is a sign of your maturity and your portfolio selection. I understand the Terrorist Bear Attack brought untold sorrows among short term investors and margin traders. I heard some traders are on the verge of bankruptcy while those who play on margin suffered huge losses picking bottom.

I guess you did too but with cash and were pyramiding vertically downside at a decent interval. A bear market like this does nobody good...even the best stock pickers went underwater. But if you are a investor for the long haul, 5 to 10 years down the road, going underwater is a normal routine; it is not a surprise. It happened to me in 1998....but by 2007, I was handsomely flying in the cloud.

As many of you are experiencing the first Recession Rule, it is good to be a part testing the theory. Even if it is wrong, I dont think the true bottom is far off from here unless there is another Great Depression. Bernanke in his testimony ytd said that there will not be a depression like in the 1930s. He said the scenario is different today as the US govt and major ind countries have taken immediate and drastic actions unlike in the 1930s, to prevent a credit seizure and a financial collapse.

All I can say is - this is the first financial crisis in the new world. Remember, the world became one in 2001 - no barrier to trade, no time zone. In this crisis, the global world came together to solve a global problem. The New Millennium is a different world - it is a global trading world. So should the global economies turn around, we are going to see a global rally. We have seen the first global decline ie a correction of the global rally.

Cycles are very interesting and profitable. It will do you a world of good to master the subject Cycles. There are man-made and god-made Cycles. Warren Buffett has perfected this art, that I am very sure.

I hope this is not my last email to you as 8th of Dec is fast approaching. Fortunately, outside the ashram there are cyber cafes, but I have only an hour in the evenings to check my mails before the main gate closes.

Thanks to those who offer to support me (financially and materially) in my Village School project. It is really encouraging. Hmm... maybe I can call this SSAR Village Education Project, dedicated to all my students. With the encouragement, I can’t wait to get to India... and see their happy faces and pure smiles.

Everyone will go to Heaven at the end of Earth's journey but no one can bring along even a tiny cent. What we had accumulated will be left behind for good, for only the good of your generations or for others.

Be close to God always, in body, mind and spirit. There is none closer to us other than God. There is none who can love us unconditionally other than God. A life without God is a life wasted. Living without seeking God is a birth gone to waste.

1 December 2008
Is the recovery in Gold prices a warning on Oil prices?

The recent movement of Gold prices - it tumbled from $1000 to $700 and now back to $900+, threatening to break above $1,000.

For me, this is something worrying. If Gold can drop to $700 and rise again to $900+, so can Oil. If OPEC is to cut production, Oil prices will surely rise further. The recent fall below $50 was a knee jerk. In fact, I think Oil prices fall was way overdone.

I still think the world is still dependent on Oil in the next ten years before alternative sources can threaten it. So nations will have to continue looking for fossil fuel. The Oil producers will want to maximise their coffers. Higher Oil prices are to their advantage. They will scheme again to force Oil prices back to $80-$100.

If that is the case, then investors should focus on Oil and Gas companies like Ezra, Swiber and .... ? (anybody know the list of good O+G companies?).

Plantation Stocks
Similarly, if Oil prices rise, plantation stocks like Wilmar, Gagri, Indofood, PineAgri etc will come back into play. But bankers told me the fundamental for palm oil is not ready as there is plenty of default from refiners. Also producers are not prepared to send stocks unless payment is made. Also, heard a few refiners are on the verge of bankruptcy. On the other hand, the chart appears bullish with prospect of a technical correction in the coming the bullish season.

Bull Season
The market is entering the most bullish season of the year - December and January. Also, Obama Magic appears to have taken effect - the DJI has staged an impressive 1,400 points rally since previous Friday when he announced Ram Emmanuel as his Chief of Staff and last Monday announcing his Economic Team. I think confidence is returning to the marketplace with Citigroup out of 'trouble'.

Merrry Christmas
My family and I will leave for India on the 8th of December. We will return on the 26th December, spending our Christmas in India. Thanks for your concern about our safety especially after news of the Mumbai Attack. Bangalore is too far away from Mumbai. We will visit friends in Bangalor. Tactically and psychologically, it is the safest time to travel after a big attack occurred. So we wish you an early Merry Christmas, and wish God be with you and your family, showering His Grace, Mercy and Protection.

January February 2009 - Free for tea
We completed EQ25 Class last Friday. We plan to commence EQ26 sometime in March 2009. I am free from January to February. I will plan for some Q&A Sessions but if you need to meet me for a personal discussion drop me an email or call me.

10th January 2009 Meeting
We have checked with the hotels - they are asking $48++ for a half day conference room booking with coffee and 2 snacks. It is too expensive. We may decide to host it at our premise (2 sessions will be necessary) if we cannot find alternative ie cheaper venue.

Service to the Poor
One of the purposes of going to India is to visit the village school for the very poor families in India. Early this year, we were there and we offer them school uniforms, pencils, pens, erasers etc. One of our student who came along brought used toys. Our children are very fortunate - the Indian kids sit on the floor to study, there is no table and chair. This time round, I am planning to offer sari for their mothers, buy more food for them, provide a set of school uniform, etc. It don’t cost us a lot but to them, it means a lot. My kids are coming along - it will be a learning process to them. They will realize their luck and know what poverty is really like.

28 November 2008
Dear EQ Students

It is 3.30 am and it is not a surprise to receive an email at this wee hour of the morning form me. Yes, I am still on my desk thinking, reading and watching. Then a thought came in. Thus this email to you.

In the spade of a few years, you have been through a Bull Run and experience the greatest Bear Run in your life. Some of us have been through two cycles of Bull-Bear Runs, and this current Bear Run was no different in damages though the scenario was very different.

So I thought, it is time for you to inventorize the mistakes made. Nobody likes that but if you want to be better prepared for the future, it is better to make a sincere effort.

My Ten Costly Mistakes are:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

After that, spend some time, putting in ink, the ten things you did right.

The Ten Things I did Right:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

I look forward your reply. I will compile them and share with you on the 10th January 2009 Gathering. Please make an effort.

22 November 2008
Are stocks finally creating a bottom?

The nightmare bear season from August, September to October was over but it left many people bankrupted. Today, I was told some remisiers may go into bankruptcy. Today, I was told a investor's $1M portfolio was now worth $150K only. We will not know how many investors were bankrupted. Last week, some friends were telling me, "It is time now to convert all your CPF Money into Stocks." From conversations I had, these people are telling me that they are waiting for a drop on property prices before buying. Well, there are always good hands and strong hands around. Do not underestimate this fact. There are always smart people with cash and patience.

We past the V point of the Bear Season ie after mid-November stocks are expected to go into a recovery. But it continued to defy the expectation by extending losses into this week. Price actions suggest the market should go into a technical correction after 15th November. In fact, Mr Doom Mark Faber (today) is calling for a strong market rebound to occur. In mid October, Buffett came out (second time in his career) to say that it is time to buy American.

Today, Obama has appointed Tim Geithner to the post of US Treasury Secretary replacing the nervous Hanson. Next week, Obama will announced his Econ Team which includes Warren Buffett. On that news, the DJI jumped and rallied 500+ points. This could be the first of the many Obama Magic.

Back in Singapore, you can see the blue chips stocks in the 30 index appearing to be bottoming out with potential SHS or Triple Thrust Bottom.

Of course, the important issue is Citibank over this weekend. What actions will the US government do with Citibank - save it or let it down? FYI, Democrats are good at turning the economy around. Republicans are good at screwing it up. What will you bet?

30 October 2008
Is Singapore Land a good buy?

Lets study Singapore Land's history:
1. In 1987, SL crashed to a low of 1.64 from a high of $4.50, then recovered to $8.20 by 1990 and $11.00 by 1996.
2. In 1998, SL crashed to a low of $2.00 from a high of $11.00, then recovered to $12.20 by 2007.
3. In 2008, SL crashed to a low of $2.95 from a high of $12.20, and .... we are waiting for it to recover .... to .....$xxx by 2018!

Percentage declines:
1. In scene 1, the decline measured 64%.
2. In scene 2, the decline measured 82%.
3. In scene 3, the decline measured 76%. The average of 1 & 2 = 73%!

Percentage recovery:
1. In scene 1, the recovery was 670%.
2. In scene 2, the recovery was 610%.
3. In scene 3, the recovery .... we have to wait ten years to know the answer, but an average of the two yields 640%!

Singapore Land is a blue chip. Go to the website to find out what Singapore Land owns.

At the top of the Bull market, we wish to own a lot of SL. At the bottom of the Bear market, everyone forgets to buy SL. Why? First is Fear Power, second is Financial Power. The earlier overwhelms, the later was deficiency.

The Group NAV is $9.95 as at end June 2008 report. At the end of June, the stock close at $6.20; this is a discount of $3.75 or 38%. Today, Singapore Land closed at $3.00. Assume a new adjusted NAV of $6.00, you still get a discount of $3.00 or 50%.

Is the discount a sufficient cushion or an excellent margin of safety? Will Singapore Land goes into bankruptcy? Ask these questions.

Singapore Land is a Singapore icon if not a landmark. Singapore Land is a landlord owning prime commercial office properties. They collect rent. How much can rentals fall? 20%, 30% or 40%? Perhaps, the lower stock price is a provision for future lower rentals. That is to say, already built in or adjusted for the future.

Today, I bought Singapore Land with a five to ten years view. In the last ten days, I spent my last $100,000 acquiring the businesses of OCBC, DBS and Singapore Land. What is there to do for me now that my war chest is empty? Go for a holiday or like Warren Buffett says - go to a deserted island for ten years. Should I say "Goodbye" to you?

Of course not. In the month of November, I am committed to run EQ25 course - new students are waiting for me. But come December I will disappear once again into mammoth and mysterious India from the 8th to 26th. If you wish to join me, let me know. I love India; my first trip was in 1983 - alone.

Back to SL again, we are now trading at 2003 SARS' low at $3.00, near to 2001 911's low at $2.90 and further down was 1998 CLOB's low at $2.00.

Honestly, I am not bothered to find out why "SL was so soft and weak". Maybe, if I know the answer, I may be a chicken instead of a Bull. Anyway, it is too late to know - I have already given my money to SL. But ten years later, I should be 600% richer if the average of the past two recoveries be true and faithful.

Once again, please be mindful that the past two weeks of selling, according to my source, were from wealthy people. Bankers told me the "private banking clients" were issued margin calls. Thus, we were seeing blue chips being thrown down and sold without mercy. Of course, hedge funds were partners in the sell saga.

Today, in CNBC there was a discussion with the topic "Historic Buying Opportunity". In the past two weeks, quite a number of smart money are calling for a buy.

This is the final week of October with Friday being 31st. As I said earlier, investors either have to stay on the sideline till October ends to be on the safe side. But some brave Bulls will find the plunging prices irresistible and very sexy.

Of course, Singapore Land is not the only one blue chip that is bloody cheap. There are many many like DBS, OCBC, UOB, Capitaland, Keppel Land etc. Our market is one of the three cheapest in term of PE. I know how you feel - when market is plunging, quite frequent we do not know what to buy while when market is in euphoria, we have a long list of "rocket stocks" and are dead sure that they will rise to the moon.

Before the end of October, I have landed DBS, OCBC and Singapore Land on my lap. They are now my business.

21 October 2008

The Fabulous Lehman Brothers Show
Alakazam!
Magic at its best!
Guaranteed! No money back.
Sponsored and brought to you by GreedBang.
Cartoon from source unknown. Apologise for not able to give credit.
ps: For free meal and drinks, call your RM immediately!

Yeah! Those a*&$% holes are really good.
It was too good to be true!

The Moral of Lehman: "It is better safe than sorry."

Thus, Goldman Sachs invited Buffett and gave him a good deal - 10% and warrant at $115. Lehman was too confident and late.

OCBC, DBS and UOB did the same when they raised a total of S$4B offering Pref Shares at around 5-6%.

In trading, it is better early than late!

24 September 2008
Is a bottom forming? Time-wise, we need to cross the terrible season - August, September and October.

FED got its wish - wipe out all the investment banks. Bear Stearns, Lehman and Merrill. Morgan and Goldman were politically saved by giving them the status the most prestigious title of true traditional or commercial "bank".

It is now the US Treasury turn to call the shot - "Giv'me a war chest of U$700B and ... more if necessary" to fight the "monster".

Next week, you will see them in "action". Ben and Hank got a "bazooka" that can rock the world. They are unlikely to lose given the "power and the cash".

"An unprecedented crisis requires unprecedented actions", both of them said.

I see the monster grudgingly giving way and then back into the cave.

Investors are no longer called Bulls. The giant "monster" has transformed them into "chickens".

If you are alive and well, you are a rare few. You can said that "I passed the biggest examination."

19 September 2008

Market in fire sale - STI did a bungee jump.

Blood-bath, murder, suicide, carnage, kami-kazi, panic, mass fear ... what else can you describe the market of the past ten days or the month of September! Not only stock investors were losing their pants, the innocent men and women on the street were losing their insurance policy monies. Usually, investors would queue to top up margin; this time people were queuing to cash out their policies at a typical cut loss.

In this notorious month of September, we witnessed the deaths of a loving couple Mr and Mrs Fannie and Freddie, and an old centurion Mr Lehman; upon hearing the demise of his old mate Mr Lehman, Mr Merrill committed suicide by jumping over the fence into the jaw of bull dog Mr America. Meanwhile the shy Miss AIG were selling herself for a meagre $2.

The way stocks were traded is a sure sign of a fire sale exercise. Investors were jumping down the building.

There were tons of bad news and comments to rock your knees and ankles. The worse was, "We are going into a Depression! Never seen before since 1929! Never in history so many big companies fall like ten pins!" Definitely, the weak hearted will walk away with trembling legs and despondent heads.

But some investors thrive on such desperate and hopeless scenario - they buy when others are selling mindlessly. One of our student told me about this stock Bestworld - it plunged 30%. They were mindlessly dumping the stock at 'any price' despite having a good fundamental.

The last panic was on March 17th, 2008 where Mr Bear was electroshot in the presence of the Sheriffs. There then, our STI hit a low of 2798 and rallied to 3250 by May. Today, was another round of panic with the STI plunging 100 points, recovered into positive territory before closing unchange.

On the chart, the low of 2345 perfectly met the mirror objective of the advance from 2798 to 3250. Over the last ten days, the STI executed a stunning a 400-feet bungee jump ie a vertical free fall without safety harness. But it spectacularly and miraculously survive the jump! This will attract the attention of bystanders like you and me.

If it is a solid bottom, then the bungee's snaps can carry the STI back to the jumpboard at 2798. But it should be wise to see how the bears Wall Street would treat the last two pariahs, Mr Goldman and Mr Morgan. It is also wise to check the force of the Financial Tsunami on European shores.

2008 will go into history as the most notorious where Depression-decorated survivors were vanquished in a matter of days! They were Bear Stearns, Freddie, Fannie and Lehman with a few more to join honorary list.

It is time to watch the market for a bottom. The tell-tale signs are there .... but it would require a steady pair of legs, some spare ammunitions and a hand full of conviction. And if it does not work, suffered a false rally, then parachute yourself to safety. Take some scratches but not lose your life.

18 September 2008
Are we very near to the bottom? Did you hear the thud thud thud - the sound of falling bodies from high-rise buildings? The dead bodies were an old foe Mr. Bear, a loving and generous couple Mr & Mrs F&F Mac and an old respectable Mr. Lehman. We did not hear a thud on Mr Merrill as he quietly committed suicide in his bedroom after swallowing cyanide.

It seems the FED has 'intention' to clean up ie close down all the investment banks by either asking The Blokes to visit the Sheriff at Room 11 or asking them to marry any nice-old-ugly gentleman across the street quickly. The blokes (investment banks/brokers) have become too big and refuse to bow down to the Sheriff - they have been running 'amok' in the old street re-engineering waste products into edible products and ranking them as 'High grade. Safe for consumption'. After this massive clean up, the financial landscape will look very different - for the better and healthier. But before we arrive, in the meantime, there will be much 'vomitting' among the many who consumed the 'Milk made in USA'.

The following were given free coffins and decent burial: 1. Mr BearS
2. Miss Fannie
3. Mr Freddie
4. Mr Lehman, 175 years old
5. Mr Merrill, 94 years old

More to cleansing to be done:
1. Mr MorganS - an old gunslinger and an ex-sheriff who prefers to shoot it out than ask for a mate, and
2. Mr GoldmanS - the notorious gold digger-n-mafia with many "political connections" which may come in handy.

The crisis originated in US and the virus has cross the Pacific into UK' HBOS who is dying for a 'quick mate'. Of course, the episode generates fear and panic around the world. This is a meltdown week. With the carnage in the marketplace, you can be sure that the crowd will walk away and show total disinterest.

Is not this the best time to appear? The rule of trading is "Buy when the crowd sells; sells when they buy." This is the contrarian philosophy but you need a "holding power".

It is near to bargain time. I think the market will be hitting rock-bottom soon - probably after another one or two thuds. Perhaps, the best way to time the market is to simulate, "If I am Warren Buffett, is it time to enter the pit and look for gems? Has the dust settles down?"

The Bear market is skidding on the most inauspicious time and season - August, September and October. Once we cross this rainy bear season, there should be sunshine ahead.

The general consensus is by middle of 2009, the market will recover ie the sky will be clear. But will it be too late? So should we stretch our hands out next week and brave the storm? I always remember the rules: -
1. What goes down must come up.
2. Dont be greedy. The Category 5 Hurricane may inch to unprecedented 6. Do what you stomach can take and be prepared to ride it out in the next 7 to 10 years.

The US' Hurricane Financial is causing many brawny and handsome stocks in Singapore to capitulate for loyalty reason. Even the falling Oil prices did not help but instead provides traction.

Strange feeling - Where are the Filthy Oil-Rich Arabs? They raise their Oils and trigger a financial storm. With the Trillion cash, are they waiting on the sideline waiting to buy buy buy? There is talk that old Mr Morgan may prostrate himself to an old-naggy-and-ruthless-empress bride from China.

26 August 2008
After the Beijing Olympics, will China Stocks plunge for perfect 10? Dear Students, I been scanning the Chinese stocks and am seeing some toppish formations on some Chinese stocks. It looks more bearish than bullish.

During the Olympics, stock markets around the world were falling but Chinese stocks seem to hold out well. Now the Olympics is over, what will the stocks do next?

There were hopeful rumors that the Chinese Govt is planning to support the stock market. Even if that is true, it will take some time and at the right price. That right price should be "if there is a meltdown". There is no meltdown so far.

25 August 2008
US$43 Billion Beijing Olympics was finally over - Thanks to China
It was the BEST OLYMPICS ever. It was the grandest, the most beautiful, the most enchanting, the most friendly and warm, the .... dont bother to describe anymore. It was just THE BEST EVER!

But it came at a price of US$43 Billion. It is worth it? Judging from the smiles and the happiness of the ONE DOT THREE BILLION CHINESE PEOPLE, it was worth every cent. In fact, it cost US$33.08 per head/citizen or 231 Yuan.

It was worth it as this is the FIRST TIME whereby China invited the WORLD to a GRAND RECEPTION showcasing its hospitality, generosity and its love for peace and happiness. In the 5,000 years long history of China, China has never invaded any foreign country, or destroyed any foreign empire. Instead, China was invaded by the Mongols, by the Westerners and by Japan. During the Imperial China, China made friends as far away as Africa, Middle East and the Malay Empire even though she was the MIGHTIEST NAVAL POWER.

The Beijing Olympics was memorable - it opened on the most auspicious of dates - 8 pm, 8th of August, 2008. And it close on my BIRTHDAY 24th August. Of course, the closing ceremony began at exactly 8 pm!

Excelled in organising, she also excelled in sports, claiming 51 GOLD MEDALS. A record feat nations like US and Russia has yet to achieve.

To be honest, I was enthralled and glued to the live telecast daily - it was Olympics Fever. Now that the Olympics was over, I am having a hangover. I woke up this morning feeling something was missing - The Olympics.

It was a blessing to watch the 29th Olympics held in China - we witnessed TWO SUPERSTARS. A swimsation Michael Phelps with 8 Gold Medals and 7 World Records and a Saintsational runner Usain Bolt with 3 Gold Medals and 3 World Records.

This was THE BEST OLYMPICS I ever had in my life time. It was a treasure and a privillege to witness. Thanks to China!

24 August 2008
2008 Olympics Joy in Beijing
The Olympics Joy lasted only 16 days from 8th of August to 24th August.

2008 Olympics Fears in US
US Home Inventory revealed 4.67 Million empty homes. American are facing Housing Crisis now after suffering a Credit Crisis. Americans and the world are facing Inflation Crisis. Casualties in the US so far Countrywide (RIP), Bear Stearns (RIP), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (in intensive onservation), Lehman Brothers (Emergency O2 treatment)

2008 Olympics Fight in US
They rated this as the Billion Dollar Election - Democrat Obama vs Republican McCain.

20 August 2008
Managing Your Portfolio in Rough Times
Dear Students, last Friday, the FED removed the "No Naked Short" and it led to speculative selling again. With speculative selling comes rumors and plenty of nerve-wrecking news not favorable to the Bulls. Rumor-mongers/traders will be having a good time shorting shorting because the 'no-play-short-rule' has expired.

Now there is speculation that Lehman will go under, that UBS will go under, that Citigroup has huge credit card debt, that ..... But certainly, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are most likely to be the next sacrificial lambs after Bear Stearns. And there are write-up that 'the worse is yet to come' or 'the worse is not over', and the economic recovery is only possible in mid 2009.

With the loads of bearishness, there are two ways to handle your US/SIN/GLOBAL portfolio, if any :
1. Sell half or
2. Sell all
The above depends on how comfortable you are with the size of your portfolio budget. Adjust your portfolio if you 'feel' necessary.

Since January, the negative 200MA heralded in the Big Bears. In a Bear market, Bulls should either stay out for good or turn guerilla by adopting the guerilla's hit and run trading tactic using a small force. A guerilla is agile, quick to strike and fast to withdraw. If you dont qualify to be one, dont try unless your aim to practising to be one.

Serious bad news:
Near to recession in Japan
Near to recession in Europe
Near to recession in USA
Post Olympic gloom in China
Lower growth for Asean countries

Other bad news:
Russia-Georgia conflict
Thailand-Cambodia conflict
Israel-Iran conflict
BN-PKR conflict (Malaysia)
Pakistan Musharaff resignation
Obama-McCain conflict (US Election)

Good news?:
Lower Oil
Lower Commodities
Stronger US$
Expecting lower inflation coz of 1 and 2.
Interest rates remain unchange
2008 is the best Olympics!

11 August 2008
World leaders praise China... China stands taller than everybody.

Words are insufficient describe the Opening of the Beijing Olympics. It was simply awesome. As an Asian, as a Singaporean and as a Chinese, I marvel at the Chinese. As I marvel, a little Chinese blood seeps through my veins to make me feel proud being a Chinese. The awesome Opening is a reminder of China's capacity and capabilities. I see a disciplined, confident and hungry citizenry. China has shown to the world the depth of her resourcefulness, her imagination, creativity and the perfection. The Olympiad may end on the 28th of August, but nobody is going to stop talking about China long after. The world is never complete without China. The world is now one, and the dream is one. The future will be bright.

Expect another shell-shocked Closing Ceremony!

What word can I choose to describe the 43rd Olympiad?
Awesome, fabulous, fantastic, great, wonderful, excellent, majestic, incomparable, spell-blinding, ....

8 August, 2008
Cheers! Today is the 8th of August 2008, and at 8 pm, it is the

8eijing Olympics' Opening Ceremony.
China's Bird's Nest Stadium

It will be recorded in history as "On the 8th Minute, 8th Hour, 8th Day, 8th Moon and 8th Year of the 2nd Millenium the Olympics was held in China.... ...." The Beijing Olympics symbolizes the coming of age of China. The ONE DOT THREE BILLION people has been waiting for ONE HUNDRED YEARS to realize this ambition. They have been waiting for this day. I am as excited as them. I feel very proud for her and her people.

China's Bird's Nest Stadium

The global world is eyeballing the Beijing Olympics, and we will be glued to our TV sets at 8 pm tonight. Lets pray for NO TROUBLE, PEACE, GOOD WEATHER and a LOVELY COMPETITIVE GAME. The FIVE BILLION people in the world are eager to watch her and are happy that she staged her first Olympics in a truly grand manner worthy of The Emperors in Heaven.

And tomorrow, ming tien........ it is yours and mine, it is

Two years from now, in 2010, we, Singapore will be the proud host of the
1st Youth Olympics. It will be our turn; it is The Little Dot's 'coming of age'.

Lets enjoy the Beijing Olympics and feel the pride and happiness of the One Dot Three Billion Chinese people. Lets enjoy the Beijing Olympics and worry about the market later. You should not be worrying if you had already gotten out on time or heeded the news while it was in its infancy stage. We ride the market; we never allow the market to ride us. This is the way of a successful investor or trader. In the past two days, there were tons of extremely negative news - news like Return of the CDO or CDO Wash Ashore in Asia even though they were old news, a year ago news. My worry is not so much about CDO - it is Interest Rates cause by CDO and Inflation.

The Triple Enemies of Stocks are War, Interest Rates and Shocks. So far, we had CDO Shock. There is potential for war against between Iran's Nuclear Ambition though it is now a bit stale news. It is Interest Rates that we worry now. Fortunately, Oil and Commodities prices are easing off; the US Govt has finally awaken and is gunning down on Oil speculators and speculation; the US$ is firming thanks to the FED and G7 efforts. In fact, the US$ is on a firm uptrend now. There is now no excuse to say that Oil prices rise is due to the weak US$ as the speculators and the Oil producers were using it as an excuse to push Oil prices up. Thus, there is less pressure on the US to hike interest rates - that will be good for the DJI. But in INFLATIONARY ASIA the questions are:
1. Can the interest rates stay low?
2. Can the governments adopt a 'forget about inflation' policy?

Today ST reported Finance Minister Tharman painted such a negative picture about Asia and Singapore - Weak global economy could hit Singapore hard. I hope he is as sharp as LKY. And ST wrote, Big 3 banks warn of hard times. Certainly, the two big news will shake the confidence out of the remaining Bulls. When I was in the bank, my bosses said, "Those remaining Bulls are not Bulls anymore; they are Cows." At first, I was puzzled but after a little while I understood what he meant. Do you know why the Bulls became Cows?

Wisdom of the Market - "In a receding tides, all ships big and small will be stranded."
Wisdom of the Market - "When the tides recede you will know who has been swimming naked."
Do you know the difference between the two? Besides the wisdom, there are Secrets of the Market. Do you know the secrets used by successful traders? Go to school if you want to know; be sure the Teacher possessed the Wisdom and the Secrets.

One final Wisdom of the Market before we retire to watch the Olympics and enjoy our Birthday:
"Riding the market is like riding the Celestial Dragon." Wish you good health and good luck.

22 July 2008
I met a stock trader yesterday and he uttered, "Better be a Bounty Hunter than be a stock trader?" I asked, "Why?" He said, "In the last six months, 90% of the traders lost their pants! We were killed by the market's panic selling. Good buys became bad buys after a weeks. With the offer of a million dollar bounty for Mas Selamat, it may be wiser to turn Bounty Hunter. It is hard to refuse. Expect a lot of resignation." I guess the stock market will be dead quiet. Soon the stock market will be a ghost town as the 8eijing Olympics is only two weeks away.

The Chinese has this saying, "If you cannot make a living in the East, go to the West." How true. In early July, we switched focus from Asia to US. There was a financial crisis in US and we saw an opportunity. Awashed with rumors, bank stocks were plunging. There was zero confidence or there was that selling herd. We went in bargain-hunting. Suddenly, the market made an U-turn and stocks like Bank of America rose 75% in four trading days. Citigroup chalked up 50% gains and UBS chalked up 25% gains. We had a windfall.

We tell our students to be global players and to tap global opportunities. With capital and internet connection, the possibilities and the opportunities are boundless. In the past, investors had little choices. Today, the world is my playground. So, you have to be a global player. But before that, it is good to attend school first, master skill and finally put it to the test. With today's connectivity, everyone has the chance to be where the action is.

19 July 2008
Do you know the reason for the strong rally in the DJI? It hit a MAJOR 50% support at 10,700 (ie 7,200 low in 2002 to a high of 14,200 in 2007). Do you know the reason for the crash to 10,827 low? It broke the wave support at 11,634, and plunged to a low of 10,827 before this majestic recovery. Just short of the 50% target by a whisker.

Of course, the bottom coincided with the FED's No Naked Short policy wef 21st July to 29th July with a possible 30 days extension if necessary, announced on the 15th July. In a way, the market is suffering a short squeeze.

DJI ended this week with a Bullish Weekly KR. On top of that it is likely to end with a Bullish Monthly KR too. I guess u know what is KR and its implications.

Technically, the two bullish KRs on the weekly and monthly suggest DJI should rally in the coming one to two months. But the continuing bearish fundamentals (Oil, Inflation) will mute and distort the recovery. Traders will look for a 50% recovery (from 13,100 high to 10,827 low) = 12,000 or a 38% recovery = 11,700.

Expect the regions stock market to recover in the next 30 to 60 days. Study the chart and look for buy signals that was taught you. In Singapore, there are a lot of battered-down good stocks. I still like the exchange stocks like SGX and BURSA - I am sure 20 years down the road, they will still be around. Banks may merge but exchange has no one to marry. We will discuss more in the coming CE Lesson on 25th Friday and 26th July Saturday. Call or cfm with Vivien if you wish to join the CE Lessons (max 15 pax per group).

Bearing the JC in mind, we should tread carefully and avoid being over bullish. To survive the Cycle, remember to indulge only in good strong stocks that can last 14 years as was the case in 1994's Cycle Top.

13 July 2008
Olympics investing is a 4-year Cycle. It is man-made. The 2008 Olmpics was awarded to Beijing, China eight years ago in 2001. The opening ceremony is on 8th August 2008. The financial impact were as follows:

CCB - Ipoed in Nov 2005 at HK2.30. Hit a high of HK9.00 in Nov 2007 ie 291% growth.
ICBC - Ipoed in Nov 2005 at HK3.50. Hit a high of HK7.50 in Nov 2007 ie 114% growth.
BOC - Ipoed in Jun 2006 at HK3.30. Hit a high of HK5.20 in Nov 2007 ie 57% growth.
China Life was HK6.00 in June 2005. It hit a high of HK52.00 in Nov 2007 ie 866% growth.

In 2004, the 2012 Olympics was awarded to London, UK. Is there an opportunity even though the Joseph Cycle is in a bear cycle? What are the UK banks we should be looking to invest? By 2012, will the investment generate a profit? Or a loss? These are the questions you have to ponder.

One of the UK bank is Barclays. Barclays is a premier UK bank. Today, it is down 62% from high of US$55 in August 2007 to a low of US$21.24. This represents 61.4% fall. If you believe in the 4-year Olympic Cycle, you can include this bank stock on your radar screen. Email me if you have an interest to invest in Barclays. There is no urgency yet as the Olympics is still 4 years away. On top of that, the UK financial system is stress down by another fresh round of financial crisis in US - the collapse of IndyMac, and the rescue of Fannie and Freddie by the FED.

Anybody any idea what are the other UK banks? Can you make a study of Barclays on ppt for sharing? Any CDO liability?

The Olympics trading rule:
"Invest years before the Olympics; sell months before the Olympics."

We will discuss this topic in the coming CE Lesson planned for 25th and 26th, July.

29 Jun 2008
Dear students, "If the shit in America is an opportunity, it is wise to structure a strategy to meet this challenging opportunity."

There are a few ways to get into action:
1. Buy 100% immediately now at $17 - the question is are you comfortable if C drops to say $14?
2. Buy scale down or average down - scale down can be pyramid down or vertical down methods
3. Buy 100% at a targeted price say for example $14 - the problem is what if C did not hit $14 and recovers to $18? What will be your alternative Plan B? The strategy to Buy American Banks requires a long-term deep-pocket approach or a Cyclical approach (two terms Republican, next two terms will be Democrat) or a contrarian approach (crisis investing). Other than a crisis brought forth by the banks themselves, you can never buy banks at a good price. Here one has to assume the banks has the years (experience and fwd time) and the ability (mgt and business) to turn around.

The investor needs the vision that both C and UBS banks have a very low probability (1%) of falling under the hammer and the extra cash to risk.

15 Jun 2008
How rich is Saudi Arabia?
Saudi Arabia plans to increase Oil output by 500,000 barrels to ten million barrels a day. How much is that in term of $ revenue?

Daily output = 10,000,000 barrels
At market price of U$135 per barrel
The total revenue per day = U$1,350,000,000 ie U$1.35 Billion a day!
In a month = U$40,500,000,000 ie U$40.5 Billion a month
In a year = U$486,000,000,000 ie U$486 Billion a year

It took Singapore 43 years to save U$222 Billion (S$300B) in Reserve. Saudi Arabia will take less than half a year to earn that.

If their Oil reserves last another ten years, Saudi Arabia would have earned U$4,860,000,000,000 ie U$4,860 Billion or U$4.86 Trillion! What about Russia, Iran and Venezuela? Their Oil Jackpot Machines are ringing non-stop. Who is paying? The rest of the world. And they are splashing their wealth in building Wonders of the World on sands. They even build a snow mountain in the desert for skiing.

Are the Oil producers just plain greedy? There are suspicions that the Oil Cartel are manipulating Oil prices with the intent to raise it to U$200 per barrel. Who suffers? The poor countries. The immediate effect is a rise food prices due to a higher cost of transportation.

Over the weekend, with pressure from G8 Nations and UN, Saudi has agreed to raise Oil output by half a billion barrels: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/14/business/14oil.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin Will that lower Oil price? I dont think so. The 'Oil Syndicate' is calling for a price of U$200 per barrel. And nobody can stop them at the moment unless the US steps in to stop speculation and charge some fellas for market manipulation.

7 June 2008
Cheers! It is football season again. It is the European Cup from 6th June to 30th June. Forget about the stock markets. It is time for football this month.

DJI crashed 400 points on Friday night. Oil prices rose $11.00 in one day! US Unemployment shot up .5 pct to 5.5 pct. Lehman Brothers needs to raise capital. Inflation is at record high. Food prices are also at record high. Countries are forced to remove oil subsidies and the citizens are up in protests. The US $ weakened on Friday. It is a load of bad news coming together with one exception - the European Cup kicks off tonight in Basle, Switzerland. Football may bring joy to the fanatics but not for the serious stock investors.

In Asia, countries are facing troubles. Myanmar was slammed by Cyclone Nargis. China was shaken by 7.9RS Earthquake. Vietnam is in deep financial mismanagement. Thailand is back to mass protest and possible military coup. Malaysia is in political chaos because of Election and a 40% petrol price hike. Indonesia is facing similar street demonstrations after the President hike petrol prices.

Then there is bad news - the Israelis may attack Iran's nuclear plant. Is this just a threat because the US is in Election or is this a real thing? If it is going to happen, expect Oil prices to shoot to $200 a barrel and the world to enter into a recession. An attack on Iran may throw the entire Middle East into chaos if Iran counter by attacking all its neighbors, unleashing its missiles and its cracked Republican Guards.

But there could be one good news in US - a dream team of Obama-Clinton. Will Obama select Clinton as his VP? He should as Clinton has the most popular vote and she is just as capable, qualified and tough. There will be a 'feel good' effect if both of them run for the Presidency. I personally believe both Obama and Clinton are capable of 'reinventing America'. The Republican under John McCain will suffer the biggest defeat in history. Investors will have to wait till January 2009 for the Election result and the chance to invest in a new USA under Obama-Clinton leadership.

In the meantime, the markets will continue to be dictated by bearish news - one after another. In fact, HK reported presence of Avian Flu (H5N1) plus massive rains and floods in the country. The Avian Flu plus the Dow's 400 points fall will send the stock markets into retreat.

If all these fail to kill the stock market, there is another one lethal killer waiting on the sideline - interest rates. Interest rates is waiting for an opportunity to rise. With inflation at record or unseen levels all over the world, interest rates cannot be lying low. It has to rise or else the world will experience hyper-inflation. The world is in a crisis and we are living dangerously. We are living in dangerous time.

1 Jun 2008
Rummaging through my email box today, I came across a reply to a fellow stranger. He wrote, "What do you get for buttering big shot? Why r u so nationalistic? RU a PAP candidate?" The trigger was an article I wrote, as follows:
"...Give this to one man - MM LKY, Singapore's Jedi Master. He made three birds come alive with one stroke. To quote Joseph Cycle book, "One day, we will see a statue of him standing beside Stamford Raffles." In 1819, Raffles founded Singapura; LKY made it into a Lion City; then GCT make it Roar; LHL will make it into The Jewel of the East."

In reply to his email, I wrote:

"I AM PROUD TO BE A SINGAPOREAN and I AM PROUD OF OUR LEADERS.

Seems you are not. Why not? You were born in Singapore. The govt has improved the living condition and livelihoods for every citizens. Is that not good enough? Dont you think we should thank the govt and its leaders?

55 years ago, on August 24th, 1953 I took birth in a leaky attap house. Today, I have a solid roof over my head, I have clean water, electricity, good roads, had a good job until I quit the bank in 1998, my children go to school, there are enough food at the supermarkets and etc. Dont you think I should be grateful to the leaders who sacrificed their lives to take care of 4 million people over the past 43 years since Independence?

Think again. As a loyal Singaporean, we must always be proud to be a Singaporean. Look at the Christians and other religions - they are proud of their Almighty God whatever their colors and locations. They will give their life to protect their country and to fufill His Almighty's Will. As Singaporeans, we should do likewise - we should be prepared to defend and die for the nation, we should always stand behind the elected leaders. Should Singaporeans say bad things about for example Malaysian leaders, the nation of 25 million would fight back, demanding an apology or even threatens Singapore. Should our neighbors say bad things about our nation and leaders, will you stand up to defend your leaders or would you said, "They deserved it!"?

In my books, I have acknowledged publicly, "The Father of Modern Singapore is Lee Kuan Yew." Sir Stamford Raffles was a founder of Singapore - he is not the Father of Our Nation. The people who refused to acknowledged this fact are the people who are jealous and envious of a succesful man, Lee Kuan Yew. When world leaders are begging to meet him and seek him, why are some Singaporeans refusing to give him credit and say "Thank You" to him? Today, his son Lee Hsien Loong is leading the nation. We should thank Mr LKY for bearing Singapore a good son! If your grandchildren is the PM of Singapore, should not all Singaporeans be proud? Naturally, the parents will be the proudest, including the ancestors.

Life is an irony - when you are poor, they look down on you; when you are rich and successful, they are envious of you. You will understand this when you are there. Envy is the man's biggest enemy.

I get nothing from buttering the PAP and its leaders. I only feel it is my duty as a Singaporean to acknowledge them in a right way - ie give credit where credit is due. I hope every Singaporean can feel it is also their duty to love Singapore and to give credit and respect to our leaders unless they think they can or does not mind living in attap houses (called slumps in those days!) with high unemployment, low wages, civil disorders, hunger, unclean water with intermittent brown out and high crime rate.

Lets learn to give credit to those that brought the biggest good to all, to those who sacrificed for the masses and to those who help to make life better for the majority and everyone as well. Our leaders have always make things happen - they created the SAF, the MRT, the SIA, the Newater etc. We should be proud of our leaders. And in our national bank, we have S$300 Billion in reserves - enough for many years of bad times."

Lets be a wise and smart Singaporeans. Lets not be driven by jealousy and sweet talks but honesty, equality, justice, loyalty, compassion and love.

Whenever I think of the people of Myanmar, I am so glad and thankful that I was born a Singaporean. I am thankful to God for putting me here. How disgusting can the leaders be for telling the world that the surviving Myanmese are strong enough to live on frogs. How do you like that if our leaders tell you that after a calamity? Thus, it is important to elect a clean, honest and responsible government that has the interest of the majority at heart. If not, our children may have to suffer the fate similar to the Myanmese, the North Koreans and the Taiwanese (under the former Chen).

If you are a good parent, you will always praise your children for the purpose of encouraging to be better and to achieve better results. So when we praise our government and its leaders we are similarly encouraging to work better and do better. Never demoralize your good leaders. Always encourage them to perform better. In that way, we can secure the future of our children in the next twenty to fifty years.

29 May 2008
The world is pretending or too fearful to admit that "the governments of the world are facing two GREAT CRISES". Why? Should they admit, it can cause panic. Panic can drive people to do the most foolish thing; panic can cause a economic paralysis; panic can cause a stock market meltdown. But in the backrooms of governments, they are worrying in their pants and calculating the possible scenarios and the possible solutions.

What are the two great crises?

Sky-rocketing Oil prices.

Imagine yoy, my utilities bill rose one hundred percent from $250 to $500! I am feeling the pinch. What about businesses? What about the economy? A year ago, crude Oil cost $70 per barrel. Now it is $135 per barrel. The global economy rose only 6% yet Oil price rose a 100%. Something is wrong somewhere. And we suspect that there is a "blackmail" or a "conspiracy" theory with Russia, Venzuela, Iran and Nigeria the key suspects. To continue the clash of civilization theory, since they cannot bring down the West using life and bombs, it is time to choke them off using a soft weapon - Oil. Ras Putin of Russia is not a simple man. He was a former KGB; Iran is never a friend of the West while Chavez is a sworn enemy of the USA. When the three come together, you can write a juicy book with many hypothesis and conspiracies. You dont need a PHD to jump to such conclusion. But strangely, the intellectuals and the newspapers are keeping mumb. None dare to poke a finger into the eyes of the Gang of Three for fear that they might shut the 'oil tap'.

I remember a story about the various parts of body on the question of who is the greatest - the brain, the eyes, the mouth, the ears, the hands or the legs. Fed-up with all their arguments and boasts, the arse hole decides to shut. After three days, everybody acknowledged the the arse hole is the greatest and most powerful. Similarly, shutting the Oil may force everyone onto their knees.

Sky-rocketing Inflation

World governments are worrying and shitting in their pants. Why? The world is facing a runaway inflation. Rising inflation can fuel protests, communal rioting, collapse of power and even war. We are seeing protests in Europe like UK, France, and Indonesia and some poor countries. The staple food, rice doubled in price within a year - it is crazy! Like-wise for cooking Oil. Two months ago, some countries were facing panic buying. In the rush for profit and development, the world has forgotten to monitor the global food supply. Agricultural lands were turned into prime residential homes and factories. Farmers were lured to part their lands for profit while some switch to the more lucrative bio-fuel farming. Technologists with cash were buying cheap lands from the ill-informed farmers. On top of that, the weather played havoc wrecking agricultural farms in Myanmar (floods) and Australia (drought). Capping it off, Nature add woes with viruses like mad-cows and bird-flu H5N1.

Yes governments are meeting, sitting and sleeping in silent panic but at the end of the day, it is wiser not to press the panic button and avoid pointing fingers. But for how long? Eventually, somebody somewhere will lose their temper and patience.

There is another greater crisis waiting on our horizon. What is that?

Interest rates - will it sky rocket like the Oil prices and inflation? Face with the twin crises of Oil and Inflation, governments are not keen to push for higher interest rates. They have no choice. If you up the interest rates, immediate economic pains will be felt across the board - companies may fall, bankruptcies will rise and currencies will swings. The consensus among governments is to defer taking the bitter medicine. But how long can interest rates stay low when food and oil costs are running away at 100%? Politicians are best at such compromise - "lets not rock the boat anymore; pray and hope for the best."

The world is in crisis. We are facing three big crises: Runaway Oil prices, runaway food prices and inflation, and soon a runaway interest rates. The third is still locked and kept in the can. If unleashed, you do not wish to imagine but it is better to think of the worse. By nature, we are not pessimist but the churning scenarios give us no choice. To survive, it is better to observe this rule - "Better be safe than be sorry."

On hindsight, the world may have got it all wrong when they focus all their energies on global warming, competing for hyper growth and unwarily, allow resources to indulge in unproductive investment. The subprime has destroyed one of our lung. I am afraid, the next crisis will destroy the second. Should that happen, we will be out of air.

The Joseph Cycle is right! The Bull Run/Cycle started in 2002 and time to end in 2008. The Bear Run/Cycle starts in 2009 and time to finish in 2015. In a Bear Cycle, it is wiser to keep cash than stocks. Cash is King. Three times in two months, Warren Buffett warned that the US economy is in a recession. But he also said he will continue to keep his investments and will never stop investing if there is a good stock. Of course, being investment minnows, we do not have pockets as deep as him. Basically, his investment philosophy - investing in very good stocks at very cheap prices - has no end time.

Is this coincidence? There is currently a rumor that is going round the world - Doomsday in 2012 - End of the World. A Brazilian psychic predicted that there will be a huge earthquake in 2012. The Dalai Lama recently said there is 'big trouble' in 2012, and my psychic qigong master said the same too. Hmmm...and 2012 is in the middle of the Joseph Cycle. Well, if you are thinking it is the end of the world - that is one load of rubbish! Never believe in that. In the past twenty years, there were so many such warnings and it all turned out untrue. Even if that is true, so what? Will you spend all your money now, quit your job and wait for Doomsday in 2012? FYI, the last Doomsday forecast was 2001. Nothing serious happened except two planes crashing into the Twin Tower causing 3,000 deaths.

24 May 2008 Signs from Heaven?

First, we had the Tibetan Uprising - an old wound being rehearsed and redressed. Then, we had Nargis Cyclone on 3rd May which devastated Myanmar killing 70,000 people and displacing 5 million Myanmese. Then on 12th of May, there was an Earthquake in China with the death toll to the tune of 50,000 and displacement of 5 million Chinese. Are these events sign of the beginning of bad times?

In the 1994 Cycle Top there was also an Earthquake - the Los Angeles Earthquake. The next year, we had Kobe Earthquake and followed by the collapse of Barings Bank in 1995.

2008 is the year of the Beijing Olympics, it will be well remembered. But 2008 is also the year of rocketing Oil, Commodities and Food prices. At the moment, are you comfortable with Oil prices at $135 high? Will companies go bust? Or will the higher food prices driven by higher oil prices inspire revolutions and trigger wars? What about Oil prices at $200 per barrel?

The Subprime, the first Financial-Quake has already opened a huge crater in the financial-scape. The stock markets can ill-afford another Financial-Quake or after-shocks. Earth may have given us a signal. To heed or not, depends on how you view the global environment, your risk appetite and your past experience.

After the Cycle Top in 1994, the financial weather in 1995 and 1996 was looking fine and OK. Who would have predicted that in the next six years, there would be a financial-blizzard that took the day-light out of Asia with everyone poorer and thinner. There was a sudden unexpected change in financial weather which none were prepared.

Will it happen this time? Today, everything seems fine and OK. But who knows, tomorrow, next year or following year, what crisis will be served?

My advise - be lean and nimble. Do not go into financial expansion. More cash could be wiser than more stocks. It is time to curb greed and reign in temptation.

It is time to be prepared and think of the impossible - the what ifs scenarios.

What if one of these crises hit America and the World?
1. H5N1 or H*N# epidemic
2. Earthquake affecting a nuclear plant or another big Earthquake to hit China
3. Another Bank failure
4. A Credit Card crisis
5. Racial crisis between blacks and whites
6. Oil costs $200 per barrel
7. US $ collapse or unwanted - a loss of confidence
8. Interest rates at double digits

Some experts say we are already living on the edge. But we dont need to be investing on the edge. We have a choice.

Be prepared for the worse! The Joseph Cycle has already timed a top for 2008. At the beginning of the Cycle, be a Gorilla; at the end of the Cycle, be a Guerilla.

My gut feel on why Oil prices are up

The rising Oil prices could be a plot or scheme by the Oil producing nations especially, Russia, Iran and Venezuela to destroy America and its allies. It could be their only and final weapon to bring down the mighty USA. But it may cost the world as well. If this is a plot, then all of us will be no better, will be worse off - it can bring forth a global depression. Analysts offered many reasons (or bullshits?) for the rising Oil prices - diminishing supply can last 20 years, growing economies in China, India etc, then the news of terrorist damaging Oil pipe lines, Nigeria problem etc. These are news meant to create panic and force Oil prices to rise. It was very similar to the Gold prices in the 1980s. I was in the Gold Rush in 1980 and the current Oil Rush sounds very familiar.

But there is another story - the US may have found a simple and perfect substitute for Oil which will eventually render Oil useless and redundant, in one to three years time. For this reason, the producing countries may have 'gang-up' aided further by 'speculators', to maximise their returns and fatten their coffers before Oil becomes obsolete. Eventually, the producers and analysts will put the blame on speculators.

That substitute is sea-water! Sea-water is unlimited in supply! If that is a credible story, it is in fact, then it is wise you stay out of bio-fuel stocks. These stocks will be JUNK. FYI, it is not economical and viable to extract Oils from food crops. Ask yourself - did Warren Buffett plunge his money into such stocks? Such companies could be playing bluffs and wasting investors money. In fact, the switch to bio-fuels is already causing greater damage to the world - sky-rocketing food prices - as farmers were misguidingly looking at silver linings. They abandon food crop farming or sold their land in favor of bio-farming. So when disaster strike Myanmar's fertile rice fields, there is a rude awakening and the world realize we have been breeding a monster - hunger and inflation.

Water is two parts Oxygen and one part Hydrogen. Hydrogen is clean fuel. To extract hydrogen from water is nothing new. The technological change from fossil fuel to hydrogen fuel will be an watershed event - this technological leap will bring forth a Recession or at worse, a Depression as was the experience in the 1930s.

The Great Depression of the 1930s was caused by a technological advancement from steam power to fossil power or from steam engine to mechanical engine technology. Since 1985, scientists and economists said the next Depression is long overdued based on the 55-year Kondratief Cycle. Could the switch from Fossil Power to Hydrogen Power bring forth the next Great Depression? Well, with the Oil prices headed (rather manipulated) for $200 per barrel, it can be foolish to deny the worse case scenario. This perhaps could be the reason why Dr Tony Tan shocked Singaporeans with his warning. All I can said is "Be Prepared". In warfare, Sun Tzu said, "In good times, be prepared for war." In investing, be as well prepared for the worse-case scenario. Afterall, the hand that holds the gun takes all the credit and all the blame.

PS: The above are my personal views and how I saw things based on my understanding and experiences - this was the way ICNFeel about the markets and about the world.

18 May 2008
Tomorrow is Vesak Day but to at least five to ten million people, it will be another day of struggle to survive. They are the victims of two colossal natural calamities - Nargis Cyclone and a 7.9RS Earthquake. Buddhists all over the world will be celebrating with a heavy heart the Birth and Enlightenment Day of Lord Buddha. On this day, they will pray for Global Compassion rather than celebration.

On one hand, we see the outpouring of love and compassion for the victims of the China Earthquake. On the other hand, we see with unbelieve, the heartless, callous and in-human character of the military government in Myanmar. Where hundreds of thousands were dying and in need of help, they even had the cheek and dare to hold an election. The Buddhist people of Mynamar are too passive, peace-loving, meek and afraid. Instead of the masses raising a revolution the MONKS took pity and started a peaceful protest. The citizens maybe too preoccupied with survival issues to care, or too intimidated to attempt. I hope for the rise of a great and genuine leader at the worse of time.

In China, the President Wen immediately went down to ground zero and was there for five consecutive days. Then, the Premier Hu took his turn and stationed himself at ground zero. Both, to provide moral support and instill a state of urgency. The message was clear - they cared for their citizens. They represent a responsible government. The western media jumped into wrong conclusion in the Tibetan Uprising. CNN editor even called the government leaders "goons and thugs". They said nothing about the leaders in Myanmar! For sure, the western media loves to bash China. Such news sell better. CNN unwillingly tendered an apology to the Chinese government. All I can said is Shame to CNN.

In Singapore, we passed the "Baton of Leadership" smoothly and perfectly. Singapore enjoyed a smooth transition of power and leadership. The leadership renewal is the envy of the world. It is the responsibility of the present leader to groom for a future leader. Take a look at Malaysia - the old leader, Mahathir bites the new leader, Badawi after appointing him as the leader to succeed him. This is unheard of. Before that, he jailed his 'groomed successor' Anwar for sodomy. Again, this is unheard of. The episode created an air of anxiety and uncertainty.

Mahathir made one big mistake. He was sarcastic at our LKY for "holding onto power as a SM". He boldly stated that he will relinquish all power to Badawi and gave full reign to Badawi. But after two years, he began to challenge his successor on every policy issues; he even called his successor a coward. Truly amazing for a leader of 22 years. It will go down in history as the most childish and no brainer episode in the history of Malaysia. Since they love to create Guiness records, nobody will object to this episode as one hell of a record.

Back to the stock market - investors beware. Beware of those stocks that sell promises of alternative fuels. Not only that it is not going to work, it is a scam. Why do I said that? There is another source of fuel that is in plentiful supply. Bio-fuels are all rubbish - in fact, it is making the world a worse place - it causes a historic rise in food prices, soon inflation will follow, then the frentic rush towards bio-fuels will come to a stop or else the world will fall apart. What is that fuel that is in plentiful supply?

In the scheme of things, the world and investors were misled to search for alternative fuels using food crops like palm oils, corns and guava plants etc. But back in the USA, researchers are working on an alternative that is free and in plentiful supply - water and salt water. The West already knows that salt water and water contains Hydrogen. Some researchers already prove that they can convert salt water into fuel. Now the big puzzle why Oil prices are going through the roof.

The Oil producers must have known of the success in converting sea-water into fuel by extracting hydrogen from the H2O. And mind you, water and sea-water is in unlimited supply and every nations have enough access to it. It is true and proven, that water and sea-water can burn. That means Oils will become redundant and worthless. So before, the technology hits the mass market, it is to the interest of the major Oil producers to hold the world ransom and 'make the most profit'. This is exactly, I suspect, what the Oil producers like Venzuela, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran etc, are attempting to do right now - "Let the world pay through their noses before Oil becomes worthless."

Now, if you do not believe me, go to youtube.com and search under "water fuel or salt water fuel" . You will be amaze that inventors are able to power lawn-mover, motorbike and motorcar using water, they are able to create fire with sea-water. This is an accidental discovery to me at youtube. Now the big question is - why isnt the rest of the world aware of this? Why is the world going into the wrong direction - searching for alternative fuels using food crops? Did not they know earlier that water is fuel? Why isnt America telling the world? Or are they secretly researching on water fuel in an attempting to be global leader and corner the global mass market?

Burning Sea water
Water Fuel Car
Water Fuel Grass Cutter
Water Car in Japan
Man runs car on pure water and sun
Water can burn

How much Oil can be saved if all vehicles can be powered by water? The USA represents only 4% of the global population but its transportation network consumes 25% of the global Oil output. Yes, if water turns into a substitute for Oil, Oil will be obsolete! Oil will be worthless. The Oil producing countries will be broke. But before that hits the market, it is not surprising that there is a concerted intentional effort by oil producers to cream off the world.

After all, water H2O, is two parts oxygen and one part hydrogen. With today's technology, it is not difficult to single out the hydrogen and turns it into fuel. Hydrogen is clean fuel. After burning it returns back to water state. Thus, it is a perfect solution unlike the fossil fuels which has a destabilising effect on the global weather and pollution. Ask any science students in Singapore, they will tell you that water can burn because of the hydrogen, theoretically speaking.

Why isnt Singapore venturing into water fuel? Is our government sleeping? Or do we have to wait till someone threatens us just like the water issue with Malaysia? In truth, the world is already threatened and in fact, held ransom by the Oil producing countries. These countries know that in one to two-year time line, water fuels technology will be perfected. And water especially sea-water, is free and in endless supply.

Go to hell with Oil! And throw away those stocks hopeful of generating enough bio-fuels to generate a profit. They will all come crashing down and the stocks will be as good as junks. It is slightly better if you invest in solar stocks! In Nasdaq, solar stocks are hot now - prices are roaring through the roof. But ultimately, they will be rendered useless and unreliable too as the sun's heat is uneven and there will be days of 'no sunshine'. Solar will be redundant once water fuels sink its root.

15 May 2008
If Lee Kuan Yew is the Father of Modern Singapore, then Mrs Lee is the silent motivator behind him. Today, join me to pray for her speedy recovery :

"Mrs Lee Kuan Yew suffered a massive brain haemorrhage on Monday and was admitted to Tan Tock Seng Hospital after a scan at the National Neuroscience Institute, the Prime Minister's Office said in a statement on Thursday."

Remember this quote: Behind every successful man is a woman. She is the woman behind Lee Kuan Yew. Singapore is blessed to have both of them. Every young Singaporeans owe both of them a ton of gratitude. I always wonder where will Singapore be and what would Singapore be like, if there is no Lee Kuan Yew and Mrs Lee.

You have seen and read terrible stories of western leaders like US's Bill Clinton and France's Sarkozy. The earlier shitted in his office while the later, had a divorce and re-marry. Leaders must set good example and raise the bar. Look at Myanmar - the leaders are committing 'genocide' by refusing foreign aids. They were not interested in their own citizens - they were callous to their sufferings. You can bet in 6 to 12 months, the citizens will rise up against the military dictator. There will be a revolution. All leaders must love their citizens; they must treat every citizens as their children. Look at China's fine example - the President immediately went to ground zero, asured the victims total support, then hugged the children, showing extreme affection and care. Look at USA - the President Bush made mistakes upon mistakes; the result: 4000 killed in Iraq, Billions spent on Occupation, bankrupting the entire nation. The President did not know the simple rule of war - "Remove the regime and get out; never stay in hostile land!" Today, America dont even have money to repair their infrastructures - roads and bridges are collapsing. Look at Malaysia - Umno is out of touch with its own people, the leaders were helping themselves to the nation's wealth, they reached the Zenith of Decay when they murdered a foreign woman by strappling her with explosives. Such audacity. Unimaginable cruelty and crime. Who is safe? What happen? The cowed people "rebelled" on March 8th 2008 using the Election platform!

After Lee Kuan Yew? Will Singapore go down that road? Definitely, not in the next twenty years. But after that, would depend on the leaders in the next twenty years.

The old war horses are slowing passing away - slowly one by one. It is only natural; time spares no one, time does not differentiate between rich and poor, leader or follower. But we must not forget the good people who dedicated their lives for the greater good of all, their contribution to nation building and for improving everyone's life - creating a roof for everyone, creating job opportunities for all, creating security and national defense, and creating tolerance, unity and understanding among its diverse races.

A good leader will live in the memory of its citizens and be cherished. A bad leader will be cursed in history. Look at Adolf Hitler - even till today, no German wish to have the name Hitler. It is a name curse in history.

A prayer:
Dear Lord, we pray for good health among our leaders and their families. We pray for harmony, peace, understanding and unity. We pray for protection against natural calamnities. We thank you and continue to ask for guided and good leaders. Thank you Lord.

23 April 2008
SHAME ON THE SINGAPORE EXCHANGE! SHAME ON THE AUTHRORITIES

Childish fight between brokers and exchange. I am really ashame that the exchange and the brokers should choose to fight at the financial expense of all investors. It been four months and yet they cannot settle the index issue. Investors are paying full fees and yet their interest were ignored.

Singapore is an international center, the government say so. But the way these people behave, I doubt we deserved title ... we are behaving worse than animals. It is a world first.

In the CLOB crisis, we did not complain when the Malaysians clobbed us. We regarded the Malaysians as outsiders, so we chose to stay united. Today, Singapore Exchange is fighting against the interest of Singaporean investors! Is not this shame?

We are paying the exchange and the brokers top commission for the stocks we bought. And yet our interest were not taken into consideration when they fight over a small issue - the index - for four long months. Who suffers? We are suffering. So those children better wake up and tighten their pampers. On the street investors are silently getting angry and frustrated.

Investors beware - the institutions are looking after own interest and disregard you. The message is - we are not important. Are they behaving like they are not accountable to anybody, not even to the reputation of Singapore? The world is laughing at Singapore Exchange and the bunch of brokers. They are putting Singapore to shame.

13 April 2008
On the 8th of March, I wrote and quote, "Certainly, the market is oversold and overdone and over-reacted. But the man on the street by now were too poor to invest. Many good stocks were cheap and begging for buyers." But an event occured this month, which made the poor even poorer and the rich less rich. Jade became jaded. Worse off, the matter is now in the hands of the CAD. It means the situation is unpredictable and can be volatile - you never know what dirty linens can be found when good names like OCBC and Merrill are actors in the script. Good luck to you who indulge in such stocks - all against the grain of commonsense investing.

At the end of every investing idea, risk is always equal to the reward. The higher the risk, the higher the reward, and the lower the risk, the lower the reward. But not many stock investors understand this. They seem to think this applies only to saving deposits and all other aspects of life EXCEPT the stock market.

First and foremost, 80% of us above 40 years of age will have a dirty-eye, an itchy-hand and an eager-leg on the stock market. And 80% of the 80% think they are wiser than the market, that they can beat the market without knowledge, that this is a safe "get-rich" scheme, think that the stock market is safer than the MLMs like Sunshine Empire, that this is a 50 50 game of Up or Down. None of them realize and or refuse to recognize, that they are paying to buy FUN, THRILL and EXCITEMENT. All of them will bullshit you that they aim to grow their money.

A few years ago, I heard of this doctor who failed as a doctor, then turned successful venture capitalist and finally into a hot-turnaround corporate specialist, buying 'sickly-looking' companies and making them healthy again. The investors read this as being savvy and see an opportunity to strike it rich, piggybacking. Words spread and he became an idol. He gained mass followers quickly. His name echoes on Battery Road and Shenton Way. His followers became loudspeakers, and promoters and salesmen. Investing friends and some of my students were telling (and advising) me to buy Jade, Netelusion and Ei-nets, citing the most enticing reason - a gambling (casino) licence in China. They said, "Dont miss this chance."

When you talk of gambling or gaming licence approved by the Chinese government, your EYES will pop out of your sockets - that is your Greed will replace your eyeballs. But my average intellect says, how can China tolerate gambling? Would the Chinese leaderships risk their leadership model by encouraging and approving gambling? Yes, Singapore Government did 'approved' with restrictions two CASINOS. But Macau (already a part of China) already has 18 Casinos, so what is the rationale for the authorities to issue another gambling or gaming licence? Ah ha, here is the catch: to win, others must spin juicy stories, stories that can entice and agitate your greed, and then slaughtering you at the abbatoir. Reasons must always rise above greed. Nobody can help you if you 'greeded' neither can you blame anybody for greeding.

After many years of walking this stony and uneven road, I have paid enough tuition fees to know that things are not as simple as it seems. The winds above the sea-line is very different from the currents below it. Only simpletons believe in simple stories that easily excite the perma skin. The years of experience has by now tamed and mellowed my greed. For their 'goodwill' recommendation, I was kind enough to give them a slanted smile. But alas, they failed to get my subtle hint. In reality, such friends are devils in disguise - they do not realize they were Satan's Man trying to drag me into Hell. Thank God I did not fall into Satan's Trap.

God has sent us an Investment Savior in the name of Warren Buffett. If you have not heard of him, please surf the web or visit the nearest bookstore to obtain a copy of his Investing Testament. After reading, I am sure you will not fall into such ploys anymore. And if you truly want to grow your wealth the right way, education and knowledge is the only Road to Stockdom.

I was tempted but I managed to resist those temptations. And should I fall into temptations, I will know how much I can afford to lose - my year end holiday. Even that is against the testament of Warren Buffett, for he says why lose when you can be a winner. Dont you dare disrespect a meek dollar - a dollar today is not equal to a dollar tomorrow. It is much much more. But like the Lord who resisted Temptations, my advise is help yourself first, then pray that you will not fall into Temptations - directly or indirectly.

In conclusion, let me quote:
A good doctor and/or a lawyer cannot cure a mediocre company, neither can a mediocre company cures your poverty.

PS: About Sunshine Empire
Over a cup of coffee with my old boss from UBS, I came to know that Sunshine Empire was selling like hot cake even in Indonesia. An Indonesian man told a his brother, taxi driver who needs money that Sunshine Empire pays 10% every month on investment. This driver asked my boss, "Sir have you heard of Sunshine Empire. A friend recommended this company and he said this could my god-send." Hopefully, he did not join.

Sunshine promises 10% returns every month. With $10,000 as member you bought a share. Every month, without your knowing, Sunshine uses your money to pay you $1,000 a month. After receiving $1,000 for three consecutive months, automatically you feel it is a 'safe and reliable company'. What do you do next? Plough in your $3,000 interest and another $7,0000 cash. The next month, you will be collecting $2,000 per month. After three months, by now six months, you say, "Oh, why dont I put in more money? For every $10,000 I will received $1,000. If my monthly needs is $5,000, then I need to have in place $50,000. Why work?" Thus, you plough in another $30,000. In total your investment is now $50,000. And soon you will be telling your brothers, sisters, friends and acquaintances about this wonderful high-yield investment plan. As long as more new money comes in, the musical-chair scheme can continue rotating. But it is a matter of time, the investors will one day wake up with bad news and realize too late that it is a scam. This normally happens are they have collected enough money to last them 10 generations.

Last December, I was in Malacca. Near a narrow stretch of beach land I saw a plot of land ear-marked for development. It belongs to Sunshine Empire. The locals said a building or hotel is coming up but it is slow. Do not judge a company by its external front.

A few years ago, there was a similar scheme in Indonesia. The owner of the scam ran off with nearly S$300,000,000. My old boss said, "Every three to five years, a new scam will appear. The people never learn." I disagree on the last statement. To be more correct, the older ones learnt the lesson, but the young ones never know. Those who were conned usually resides in embarassment, keeping quiet to save face. The schemers know about human weaknesses and seek to exploit such weakness. It is good the Singapore Authorities step in. But, I guess it may be "too late". Already, many Singaporeans have a leg in it.

Like-wise, in the newspapers many advertisements are promising "making millions in forex and stock trading" and "instant trading success - I make $40,000 in one day" and so on. You pay $3,000 to $5,000 to hear their 'sermons' (or nonsense?). They teach in huge crowds of two hundred and over. Some lecturers were said to be beating their chest assuring you God will help you. Do you know that these teachers pocket half a million dollars for every seminar? Do you know that less than 5% of the students were successful when they plunge into trading after the 2 days course? Losing their tuition fee of $3K to $5k may not be a big deal but causing them to lose their life savings is a sin. Once again, the majority of grown ups are gullible. The mainland Chinese has this to say of Singaporeans, "They are easily conned and taken in. And they dont complain. Singaporeans are the easiest meat for cons." My advice to you readers is this: "Check the background of the teachers. Make sure they have at least 15 years of experience and worked in one of the top three organizations in the industry." How great can you be if you are blind and learn from the blind?

8 March 2008
January 29th to February 29th, I was resting and recuperating in one of the ashram in India. The stock market was in a bear mode, and there is not much to do than to take a break. I did nibble on some undervalued stocks before I went on my retreat. The retreat was physical as well as spiritual. I went to a quiet place to heal my worn out heart. I also tried to touch base with my Creater, God. When I came back, I was told the investors suffered big losses. Even some experienced traders were bleeding. It was not a big deal as they were giving back some of their big profits. But for the inexperienced and new entrants, they are sitting on big paper losses; they missed out on the Big Bull Run from 2003.

Then there others who came into the market two years earlier. They panic on the three knee-jerks and finally were caught holding expensive stocks. Their losses ran into lakhs.

Back at home, I heard of one proprietary/house trader who lost a cool $3 Million in the last six months. Certainly, his father can afford his extravaganza. He drove a Ferrari. No matter how rich you are, the market has no mercy for illiterates and heroes. I wish he go to school first unless his objective is to have some FUN, thrill and excitement. Well, most of the losers are like that. They came for the thrills.

There is another category of losers - the greedy one. They heard someone made some good bucks and they greed. They tried their hands on the pot-luck-stock-machine but instead of making a killing they got their right hand severed. And these people blame it on 'bad luck'.

The losers contributed to the winners. Winners need the losers. If there are no losers how can there be winners? Everyone has a choice to be the loser or the winner. If you want to be the winner, you have to learn how to be winner. On the other hand, losers dont need learning. So before you set out on the investment highway, decide which path you would like to take - the Winner's Pathway or the Loser's Pathway.

October was the market top. It is March now. The decline is into the six months. Decline dont last forever. That means somehow sometime in the near future, there will be an opportunity for the market to rise again ie recover in prices. In the last two months, as the Hedge Funds panic and ran for the exit, innocent investors were rolled over. There were chaos and a loss of confidence. It was caused by the CDO, the Oil price and inflation. Prices were falling in thin volume. There was no bid at time. And worse still, there were margin calls and forced selling. Well, you can say it was like a melt-down - the final episode of the decline.

Certainly, the market is oversold and overdone and over-reacted. But the man on the street by now were too poor to invest. Many good stocks were cheap and begging for buyers.

Bad time will end, so is good time which recently ended at its high in October 2007. Bear market will give way to bull market. Falling prices will give way to rising prices. The stock market is a dynamic cycle - rising and falling, always in a constinuous state of fluctuations. When you understand fluctuations, you will understand the nature of market.

Before I leave for India, I was eyeing to buy Citigroup at $27 and UBS at $38. When I came back, I bought them at $23 and $32. It was cheap. Personally, I think the low price has already built-in all the negative factors. I am buying them based on Crisis Investing. When else can you buy such good name banks at such low prices? Do you think Citigroup and UBSG will file for Chapter 11? Of course, there is still a risk but one has to take calculated risk. We dont bet our entire life saving. America is getting cheap including the US$ - and it is attracting a lot of foreign investors. The nation and economy is caught in a Election limbo. After the Election, well Democrats will win the Election, the bearish mindset will change into positivism. I dont think it is wise to write off America. You can ask our MM. America always has the capability to come back and bounce back. They have the energy and the dynamism. They are global leaders and trendsetters. Just think of American Idol.

In the year 2007, I abused my God-given body - 3 hours of sleep, 10 cups of coffee, five rounds of Chinese tea, red-wine. God put a stop though he did not stop me. By January 2008, my body rebel - I was rewarded with a irregular heart beat, irritable bowel and yellowish skin. I knew my time was up. Thus I RAN off to India - to hibernate and to recuperate, even at the expense of celebrating Chinese New Year with the family. I may be mighty over the market, but I failed to lord over my health. In fact, I bow to God and beg for good health. I always profess health over wealth but 2007 was a year that require attention. I gave it but I paid a price.

Thank God I am better today. By chance, I met a Singaporean friend who introduced me to Electro Therapy. It worked. I got my strength and health back. Now I must treasure it. Yes, treasure your good health. Dont take it for granted. Dont let sickness wakes you up. All your money cannot buy good health. But your good health can earn all the money.

Praise the Lord.